AAPL  221216C00165000

Apple Inc.

Or tell me how I’m dumb/crazy? (Obvs macro situation is a substantial headwind, I'm team soft-landing)
**TL;DR:**
- **AAPL price has followed a pretty identical seasonal pattern** **from Sept to Jan over the past 5yrs.**
- **5% selloff at first, then 20-40% rally**
- **Buying Calls with Dec/Jan exp.**

**Context:** I was wondering if/how apple’s Fall product announcements impacted stock price noticed a pretty regular pattern in AAPL stock every year from Sept to December over the past 5yrs.

Here's $AAPL's avg performance from Sept 1 to Jan 1 of the next year:

![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/91f40a23e1f715a303077c461e43e0534e5099a7107ab364250e246caaf0aef3-3309x3313.png)

**My Thesis** is that after the sept iPhone announcements, twitter /armchair
quarterbacks complain about how there’s nothing new or impressive, pre orders
are way down, this year’s iphone sales will be terrible, market was hoping for some
crazy new thing, blah blah blah…

…Then everyone goes and buys all their products anyways, spends a
zillion dollars on dongles/holiday presents, and the stock goes back up… because
it’s Apple

Like clockwork:
![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/99deb5412ed83c48bcb788a5b8eb2127ad5e85dc14c51037753d069947d1398d-1284x1509.jpg)

The only year not following this pattern was 2018 when entire market corrected over the same time. I kind of think we've already done a lot of that correction, but that's clearly the biggest wildcard.

This all _intuitively_ makes sense to me but I’m sure I’m oversimplifying/missing
something. I usually don't love trading $AAPL since I feel like I have zero insights not already priced in, but 4/5 years = enough of a pattern to make me want to place a bet, let's see how it goes. Below are the charts I threw together to research this (data from Yahoo Finance put into Excel) DID I JUST DO TA?!?!

$AAPL Price 2017-2021
![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/94a5cea6f56b13b5164c44b4240b608559d3b939bfa0312925d0e84cd2ea9b5f-3313x3313.png)


$AAPL Performance year vs year 2017-2021
![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/e42bc41dbc9efd98da23a6e3cbd2424074a441b4ed8cd423e9eb4a4c653ae555-3313x3313.png)

$AAPL Avg performance 2017-2021
![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/971bf55d40814f2b2962e68f56494ffffa7ab9821d5242dbb1c302d9b4d40d31-3309x3313.png)


The trend is more clear when you remove 2018. Yes, this is literally the definition of cherry-picking data 🤷🏼‍♂️ ...It's my party I can do what I want to.

$AAPL Performance year vs year 2017-2021 **EX-2018**
![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/fc6f105020cb5ed60f159dba9906ce02ceedb359bf325e4699d57d7b2e05b86c-3313x3313.png)


$AAPL Avg performance 2017-2021 **EX-2018**
![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/e3deaae9f597629f3b5a4440228d4c012296590bc5f5ac9607b49728dfe0fb43-3313x3309.png)

**@mcd**  I think it’s a sound strategy. I’d pay up for more time and go out to an expiration in spring 2023 timeframe just because the macro environment is so volitile. You can always sell before expiration and time has value too! 

sam stribling

Very, very interesting! I believe 2018 had a major stock market correction which probably bled into Apple for that year, especially starting in September 2018. I would think that type of risk is still present today, but I like your odds.

Really good find!

Conor

Personally, I am not very bullish on $AAPL here given the chart structure. I wish you the best in the position though :)
![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/db9e53d1ab3d094adce41ef0ee65341829c3a2f8a1d4fe3d2465a19e3e8d2871-1516x856.png)

![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/6d519df47aa60c2e25197df6e8494ec2a48f0a8b34b4feed1a7f28594ab3db1a-800x589.png)

Preston | Investor Insight

if the FED sticks truly executes on QT as announced, then more pain ahead for equities, including $AAPL

MuhammadAli

Tell me why this $AAPL trade isn't free money?

not a good plan i guess, by then **$AAPL** could be trading in 120/125 range 🤞

WeAreDayTraders

Bought AAPL $165 Calls

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