Dvir Bar's Posts | Commonstock

@thelostinvestor09/06/2022

Joby Aviation - the Next Tesla we've been waiting for?

The electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL) industry is ready to revolutionize the way people get from place to place.

eVTOLs will make it possible for people to move around cities at a rapid pace, thereby sustaining human productivity and solving the global vehicle traffic problem.

I believe that Joby Aviation, Inc. (NYSE: JOBY) is one of the most promising players in the eVTOL sector to invest in now, as I'll explain in this article.

https://www.thelostinvestor.co/joby-aviation-the-next-tesla/

$JOBY

THE LOST INVESTOR

Joby Aviation - the next Tesla we've been waiting for?

Find out about a next-gen flying taxi company that could be bigger than Uber or Tesla, and you can invest in today.

Undefined

@eggplant09/06/2022

Always sceptical when people use the "the next X" line. As much as Tesla is a household name, I don't even think EVs are a fraction of the penetration they are going to have over the next two decades, and that is something has been assisted by policy commitments from governments across the world.

What suggests Joby is any different to the other dead trends, like scooters?

+ 1 comment

Dvir Bar

@thelostinvestor08/21/2022

Fighting the Inflation - Lessons from Great Inflation of the 1970s

https://www.thelostinvestor.co/fighting-the-inflation-lessons-from-great-inflation-of-the-1970s/

THE LOST INVESTOR

Fighting the Inflation - Lessons from Great Inflation of the 1970s

Technical and Fundamental Analysis and Macroeconomics trends

Dvir Bar

@thelostinvestor07/26/2022

Expected Moves. SPY, QQQ, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Shopify, and more

Implied Volatility / VIX – The VIX closed the week near 23, down slightly on the week.

Expected Moves for This Week

SPY 2.1% (+/- $8)
QQQ 2.8% (+/- $8.50)
IWM 2.6% (+/- $5)
DIA 1.7% (+/- $5.50)

Earnings

Tuesday

Microsoft MSFT / Expected Move: 4.2% / Recent moves: +5%, +3%, +4%
Alphabet GOOGL / Expected Move: 6.0% / Recent moves: -4%, +8%, +5%
United Parcel UPS / Expected Move: 6.5% / Recent moves: -3%, +14%, +7%
Visa V / Expected Move: 4.6% / Recent moves: +6%, +11%, -7%
General Motors GM / Expected Move: 5.2% / Recent moves: +2%, -1%, -5%
Chipotle CMG / Expected Move: 5.6% / Recent moves: +3%, +10%, -3%

Wednesday

Shopify SHOP / Expected Move: 11.2% / Recent moves: -15%, -16%, +7%
Meta META / Expected Move: 10% / Recent moves: +18%, -26%, 0%
Boeing BA / Expected Move: 5.4% / Recent moves: -8%, -5%, -2%
Spotify SPOT / Expected Move: 10.2% / Recent moves: -17%, +8%, -6%

Thursday

Apple AAPL / Expected Move: 4.2% / Recent moves: -4%, +7%, -2%
Amazon AMZN / Expected Move: 6.1% / Recent moves: -14%, +14%, -2%
Intel INTC / Expected Move: 6.7% / Recent moves: -7%, 7%, -12%
Roku ROKU / Expected Move: 13.2% / Recent moves: +1%, -22%, -8%

Friday

Exxon Mobile XOM / Expected Move: 3.9% / Recent moves: -2%, +6%, +0%
Chevron CVX / Expected Move: 3.9% / Recent moves: -3%, +4%, +1%

Dvir Bar

@thelostinvestor07/25/2022

Expected Moves. SPY, QQQ, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Shopify, and more.

For more useful content https://www.thelostinvestor.co/

The Broader Markets

Last Week – SPY was higher by 2.4% last week, a little more than the 2% move options were pricing.

his Week – SPY options are again pricing a 2.1% move for the upcoming week.

plied Volatility / VIX – h VIX closed the week near 23, down slightly on the week.

p cted Moves for This Week v Options AI)

SPY 2% * (/ $8)**
QQQ 2* -$8.50)**
IWM *2.*(+ $5)
DIA **.7(+/- .50)

Earnings

Tuesday

Mcr**t MF Expc**Move: 4.2% / R moves: +5%, +3%, +4%
****Alpab* **GOOGL / Expect** ve: 6.0% /** ece oves: -4%, +8%, +5%
Unitd P l UPS / *E ecte Mv6.5% / Re ent es: -3%, +14%, +7%**
*Visa V *pe e Moe:6% / Recet v** : +6%, +11%, -7%
**GeneralMots GM / ExpectdMve:** % / Recent**mos +2%, -1%, -5%
Chipotle* CM /*Expeteve: . / Recent moves:** %, +10%, -3%

Wednesday

**Shopify** HOP *xpe tdMve: 11.2% */ Recent movs: 1 -16%, +7%
Meta META ** ped : 10%** R ent moves: 1,-26%, 0%
**Boeing BA / *Exct ov:4% e nt moves: -%,-, -2%
**Spotify SPOT /** Eec** d ov:.2%** Rc t moves: -17, 8 -6%

Thursday

**Apple AAPL / E pecd e:4 / Ret oves: -4%, 7% %**
**Amazon AMZN / Ex ect M e 61 / Rectm es: -14%, +14%, -%
**Intel** INTC / **Expetedove.% Recenms: -7%, 7%, -12% Roku ROKU / Expected Move 1.2/ ecen es +1%, -22%, -8%

Friday

Exxon Mobile XOM / Epectd Moe 3.9%* cen mo s 2, +6%, +0%**

THE LOST INVESTOR

all about Technical and Fundamental Analysis of Indices and Stocks and Macroeconomics Trends. Our goal is to help you make better risk/reward decisions.

Dvir Bar

@thelostinvestor07/25/2022

Monday's Coffee - The upcoming week 25/07 - 29/07

Fueled by hopes that inflation has peaked, bad Housing Starts and Buildings permits numbers, and good earnings from Goldman Sachs and Tesla, the bear market continued to rally with the S&P 500 ($SPX) gaining about 10.3% to 4,012 points and Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) gaining 14.61% to 12,660 points since its bear market trough on June 16.

Last Friday, Snap reported disappointing second-quarter results in shares down 39% and caused concerns among Ads-based companies such as Google ($GOOGL) and Meta ($META) amid their earnings this upcoming week.

This upcoming week we will have FOMC with Rate Decision, GDP Q2, full of tech companies' earnings and lots of key data and events making it, the most important week in this quarter and will be a compass for the next direction of the market. Let's dive in and see what awaits us in the upcoming week and how to prepare.

https://www.thelostinvestor.co/sundays25072907/

Dvir Bar

@thelostinvestor07/23/2022

How Many Rate Hikes Does Quantitative Tightening Equal?

To assess the overall stance of monetary policy, we need to take into consideration the effects of both the interest rate policy and the balance sheet policy. A natural question then arises: what is the equivalence between interest rate hikes and QT?

This is a challenging question as the experience with QT is limited. historically, there was only one round of QT.

According to a June study published by the Fed, a $2.5tn drawdown in the balance sheet over the next few years would be roughly in line with just over a half-point increase in the benchmark US policy rate — a range in keeping with Fed vice-chair Lael Brainard’s assessment that the central bank’s plans amount to “two or three additional rate hikes”. In other words, a year’s worth of QT, or about $1 trillion, is roughly equivalent to a single 25bp rate hike.

Even though the Fed may claim it would be roughly just over 50bps, the actual estimate of the equivalence between interest rate hikes and QT depends on several factors such final size of the Fed’s balance sheet, the interaction with the demand for liquidity in the financial system and the financial markets condition. Another factor that influences how QT affects interest rates is the maturity structure of Treasury debt.

A recent paper, from researchers at the Atlanta and Kansas City Fed regional banks, claims that in the baseline scenario of a $2.2 trillion passive roll-off over three years, it is equivalent to an increase of 29 basis points in the current federal funds rate during a period of low financial market volatility. The amount of equivalent rate hikes increases to 74 basis points during a volatile market period. A hefty blow that could tighten monetary policy more than the Fed expects.

The episode between 2017 and 2019 showed: With rising asset runoff volumes, the tension in money markets was increasing.

Source:

https://www.thelostinvestor.co/how-many-rate-hikes-does-quantitative-tightening-equal/

THE LOST INVESTOR

How Many Rate Hikes Does Quantitative Tightening Equal?

Technical and Fundamental Analysis and Macroeconomics trends

Christian

@etfs07/23/2022

I thought anything above 2% federal funds rate was quantitative tightening since 2% inflation is their stated goal, but I maybe getting those 2 things mixed up.

+ 1 comment

Dvir Bar

@thelostinvestor07/23/2022

The Lost Investors' Followers!

We kill it this week! what a rally. but it is maybe the end of this rally heading to the next leg down. It all depends on the following week:

Next Week 25/07 - 29/07

Tuesday

$MSFT & $GOOGL

Home Sales

Wednesday

FOMC + Interest Rate Decision (0.75% Forecasted)

$META & $SHOP