Rodrigo Benedetti's avatar

follower assets

PI aiming for returns, do anything that makes money.
The Gamestop of O&G?

In light of the recent moves between US and the EU you can bet these guys will get financing...

It is a reflexive play, so beware of the speculative nature of it. Big risk and reward.
Oil $XLE vs. Tech $QQQ
Some dismiss tech because it has worked for 10 years and "reversion to the mean" is a powerful meme. At the same time for many people is hard to imagine tech will stop working because everyone that claimed so in the last 10 years has been fried by the market.

It is difficult to make a strong argument against profitable tech (its constituents are incredibly good businesses) in the medium term (2-5 years). Valuations have catched up to pre covid but there could still be more room to go, especially as inflation will be above 2% for many many months. IMO short term it is going to be mediocre for long duration assets.

I do think oil is going to outperform in a short timeframe (6 months). The supply picture is quite bullish, with shale not drilling what you'd expect. Market is in price discovery mode, trying to see what is enough to provoke a serious supply response. If shale doesn't react at $100 we are going to $140 and see if deep water projects start to get commissioned.

Time will tell, so for Q2/3 small Canadian oilers FTW while QQQ underperforms?
Re tech, I think when most people brand the entire bucket as a collective, it leaves the door open for misinterpretation. (Not saying you are doing that btw).

Within 'tech' there are subsectors that are essentially part of western infrastructure at this point, others who are more nascent, some that are unproven, and a bunch more. Its about being selective.
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