These may be famous last words but I don't believe Match will be a market beating stock over then next 5-10 years. Margins have been worsening since each year since 2018, paying customers and revenue per paying customer has been declining QoQ, and there's now a growth-by-acquisition feel which I never am a fan of. At this point, I feel Bumble has a better chance of exceeding market return overs the next 5-10 years then Match does and I also feel the new positions I put the Match and Bumble money towards ($PCOR and $NET) are far more likely to be market beating positions.

Match Returns

Time held: 3.45 years

Total / annualized return: 5.14% / 1.84%

Total / annualized $SPY return: 37.31% / 11.59%

Total / annualized $QQQ return: 62.41% / 18.32%

On Bumble, I took advantage of buying the dip. I picked up additional shares in early March at $16.72/sh. I sold those shares at $34.58/sh (this trade didn't map over to Commonstock) to put towards $NET and $PCOR. I'm still cautiously bullish on Bumble and will be watching their Bumble growth closely.

For my new position in Procore, I see a high margin SaaS business (in an industry that desperately needs this type of company) with a lot of operating leverage ahead, accelerating growth in their large (>$100k ARR) customers and strong but not spectacular DBNRR and DBGRR. I don't expect them to growth revenue at 35-40% every quarter but I think 15-25% is reasonable for the foreseeable future. Their likely will be valuation compression as revenue slows but over the next 10+ years, I think they'll do just fine.

Metrics I track on each non-core holding buy:

P/S - 14.6

Forward P/S - 10.5

PSG - .26

P/FCF - Negative

P/GP - 18

Rule of 40 - 28%

We all know about Cloudflare. Revenue growth YoY exceeding 50% for 8 consecutive quarters now is usually the headliner. I think they'll be FCF positive, or really close) in their FY24. Like Procore, they have operating leverage ahead of them and hopefully start pulling those strings a bit soon. A DBNRR of 125% in this recent Q, up from 119%, and management has a stated goal of getting that to 130%. They're also growing their largest customers at an incredible rate still (71% in 2021 which makes 5 years of growing >$100k customers at >50%). I'm watching headcount to make sure they don't hire just to say they hired. Employee growth grew at 36.5% in 2021 which was their slowest growth since data is available (2017). I already own shares in $OKTA, $ZS, and $CRWD and with the importance of cybersecurity and the likelihood of that continuing, I have no problem adding $NET as well. As many people have said, if a company needs to cut costs, the odds that they cut their cybersecurity expenses will probably be low.

Metrics I track on each non-core holding buy:

P/S - 31.8 (whew)

Forward P/S - 19.6

PSG - .39

P/FCF - Negative

P/GP - 41

Rule of 40 - 41%