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Why does C3. AI, which has reached a new high this year, still have no chance?
Because it is not an AI company.

$AI Q4 results for fiscal year 23 ending May 31 were announced after May 31.

Revenue was $72.4 million, higher than the expected $71.37 million, and the adjusted loss per share was $0.13, which was better than the expected loss of $0.17. Among them, the revenue from subscription is $560,000, accounting for 79% of the total revenue.

Non-GAAP gross profit was USD 530,000 and non-GAAP gross profit margin was 9%.

GAAP's remaining performance obligations ("RPO") were US $381 million, which was lower than the expected US $405 million.

For the performance outlook of Q1 in fiscal year 2024, the revenue is 70-72 million US dollars, and the market expectation is 71.34 million US dollars, which is basically flat; Non-GAAP lost $25-30 million;

For the overall outlook of fiscal year 2024, the revenue is 295-300 million US dollars, and the market expectation is 266 million US dollars.

Key points of investment

Is Q4's performance ideal? We can only say that there is a gap with market expectations. Among them, RPO is the target that investors pay more attention to, and it also represents the potential of the company's future performance, which leads to a sharp drop due to falling short of expectations. More importantly, the market expects AI-related businesses to not appear.

In fact, C3. AI is not an AI stock at all. Although it is also subscription income, it is more like an "intermediary company". When clean energy was on fire, it was called C3. Energy;; Later, IOT caught fire and changed it to C3. IOTL;; Now AI is on fire. It changed its name to C3. AI. Just because AI is the outlet, it robbed this unique code, so it was classified as AI concept stock. The emergence of ChatGPT will not benefit all software companies. On the contrary, because AI improves productivity, many so-called software service companies are likely to be replaced by big models and become victims instead.

Please note that in the first half of this year, C3. AI Was shorted by research institutions.

On the other hand, the valuation level of C3. AI is not low. Because it has been in a long-term loss, the current PS is as high as 16 times, far higher than the industry average of 6 times. At the same time, the company's forward-looking EV/Sales is as high as 10 times of the revenue forecast for the next fiscal year, which is 5 times higher than the industry average.

The reason why this ticket will skyrocket and plummet is that too many bears are pouring in, which leads to a game among retail investors and becomes a typical "meme" stock.

The short ratio of this stock is as high as 29%, so we need to be careful about the risk of short backlog.

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