Equity investors are partying like there's a fed pivot, while commodity investors are running for the recession hills. I suppose both can be right in the sense that a recession will likely bring a pivot (eventually), but certainly not without some pain to the equity markets for a while. It seems more likely that one is much more right than the other. My bet is discounts are going to bring the shoppers back and there will be no pivot, whereas energy is still structurally under-supplied, so I expect neither a pivot nor an energy-killing recession.