The "obvious" bet rarely makes you lots of money. Swimming against the tide always ends in catastrophe or astronomical returns in my experience to date.
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It's not a comfortable position to be in however I think the key to following through with such bets takes a certain kind of mindset-  "To succeed as a contrarian you must recognize what the crowd believes, have concrete justification for why the majority is wrong, and have the patience and conviction to stick with what is, by definition, an unpopular bet" - Whitney Tilson