The current market environment with higher rates and tight credit conditions is likely to keep dealmaking subdued for some time. Consequently, one could expect PE returns to trend much lower from their highs in 2020-21.

However, PE vintages from down years like these have a great track record of outperforming the markets, almost ageing like fine wine.

I tried following this train of thought this week, looking at other down year vintages and what might be driving this outperformance during tougher economic environments.