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Global Space Industry
Two interesting, divergent opinions on the global space industry:
  • Bank of America has the industry valued at $1.4 trillion by 2030.
  • Citi has it reaching $1 trillion only by 2040.

Launch costs have declined precipitously over the last two decades -- more than 10x. Seems BofA views the curve likely to be similar to the one shown below, while Citi projects more of a flattening in the growth rate.

I'm not sure, of course, but I do find it difficult to believe launch costs don't decline significantly again in the next 10 years with the pattern resembling a disruptive innovation curve. New companies are already coming online with launch capabilities. It seems to be a matter of iterations (time) before new supply drives the cost down.

What will companies do with the decline in launch costs to drive the growth of the overall industry? I'm unsure, but confident in our historical capability for innovation.

Consider what Planet Labs ($PL) is doing -- imaging every point on the Earth's surface every day, in a data uniform way. The value of that data in software-form is likely to be highly valuable in the future. As of yet, the viability of the commercially driven space business model is unproven, but I believe launch costs will enable new industries, and with that, new business models.

Just my two cents on an industry I find fascinating.


Post media
www.futuretimeline.net
Launch costs to low Earth orbit, 1980-2100 | Future Timeline | Data & Trends | Future Predictions
This graph shows the declining costs of launching people and cargo into space.

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