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Tesla Earnings Recap
Tesla Summary

Another record quarter for $TSLA.
Planning to grow production as quickly as possible in alignment with the 50% CAGR target they began guiding in early 2021 (yes I know… don’t get me started on this pls).

In January, Tesla has seen the strongest orders YTD ever. Orders are coming in almost 2x the rate of production. Here I thought Elon is hurting the brand and nobody would buy a Tesla…

Of course, this is the effect of them lowering the price of the vehicles + IRA. In the meantime, Tesla already raised the price of a Model Y by $500 because demand is too high. (people should pay Tesla the extra $500 now, right?)

In 2023, Tesla expects to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8M for the year (Elon during the call couldn’t help himself so he said 2M). Yes, I know, that 1.8M number is only 37% growth YOY.
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The most important part for me was the focus on the next Gen platform (imo $25K vehicle) which is currently under development. More details are to be shared on March 1st. I’ll quote, “We have other productS in development, we’re not going to announce them now obviously, but they’re very exciting and will blow people’s minds when we reveal them.”

Automotive

Management expects margins to stay above 20%.
Tesla insurance: $300M annual run rate (for premiums) 17% of customers are using Tesla insurance in the available States.
Cybertruck summer start but volume production in 2024 (no surprises here).

For 2022,
  • Automotive revenues grew 51% YOY
  • Automotive gross profit grew 47% YOY with GM down 82bp.
  • Operating margin for the year was 16.8%, up 464bp.
  • FCF increased 51% to $7.56B and Tesla ended the year with $22B in cash and practically no debt.

For Q4,
  • Automotive revenues grew 33% YOY
  • Automotive gross profit grew 13% YOY with GM down 466bp.
  • Operating margin for the year was 16%, down 129bp.
  • FCF decreased 49% YOY (partially offset by debt repayments of $497M).
Energy

Energy storage deployments increased by 152% to 2.5GWh (6.5GWh in all of 2022).

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Solar deployments increased by 18% YOY to 100MW (348MW in all of 2022).
Energy sales were $1.3B up 90% YOY.
Energy Profit was $159M and GM was 12.1% (imagine what happens when it’s fully ramped up…)


Extra Info

FSD revenue recognized of $324M and $467M in regulatory credits.

When it comes to ASP and Tesla's margin. This picture says it all.
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To conclude, there's no stronger company in the automotive industry than Tesla and they aren't even just a car company.

I'm as bullish as ever (#1 position in my portfolio) and Tesla barely scratched the surface.

Neil's avatar
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