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Inflation Nation
Good morning CommonStock! Stock futures have recovered some losses ahead of the CPI report at 0830…

This is the main event of the week and the one we have been anticipating for days. The CPI is expected to print at 8.7% year-over-year, a decline from the 9.1% seen last month. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to come in at 6.1% YoY, which would actually be an increase over the 5.9% of one month ago.

Friendly reminder that for all their (numerous) faults, economists usually get the the CPI and especially core CPI figures pretty right. The last two years there have been just six instances where their estimates missed by 0.3 percentage points or more for the core CPI, most recently in March on the heels of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. When it does miss by that much it is often due to external shocks of some sort. There weren’t any of these in July…

contrarianpod.substack.com
Consumer Price Index to Shed Light on State of Inflation
Stock futures have reversed losses ahead of the CPI report at 0830…

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