Sufi's avatar
$84.8m follower assets
Bought $PYPL ~ $68,530 Position
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- 12/17 $230 Calls ~ 40 contracts for a total premium of $7,000.
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- 300 Shares at $205.10

“There is a voice that doesn’t use words. listen.” ~ Rumi

#Paypal @paypal
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Linked trades
PayPal at $205.10
SufiNovember 17
2 linked trades
Nathan Worden's avatar
According to a 2018 PayPal investor presentation, the digital and mobile payments market is worth a staggering US$110 trillion.

I like the crypto thesis @sufiofwallst — I've been long PayPal since 2018 and still like the simple digital payments thesis /tailwinds for years to come.

Conor Mac's avatar
@nathanworden read the 2021 pres :)
Alejandro Rodriguez's avatar
@investmenttalk I'm having a hard time finding a similar slide about TAM in the 2021 Paypal investor presentation
Joshua Simka's avatar
If not in words, perhaps the voice speaks in numbers? :) I love how total payment value and active accounts have been growing by double-digit percentage. The $AMZN partnership sweetens it. @sufiofwallst, thanks for sharing your strong conviction in $PYPL
Alejandro Rodriguez's avatar
@sufiofwallst if the calls start going in the wrong direction, what is your stop loss set at? How much of the $7,000 in premium are you willing to lose?
Sufi's avatar
@sufiofwallstNovember 17
Author
@alejandro_r pretty much all of it ~ its largely a technical trade given how much beating the stock has already seen in the recent days ~ non of my technical indicators point to much further downside from these levels. If it does go south and the contracts lose 50% to 60% of their value, i might even look to double down on this bet on gap getting fill by 12/17 and average down.
Sufi's avatar
@sufiofwallstNovember 17
Author
@alejandro_r also options are a tricky animal ~ if we do start going north, i expect the IV to go up with it and that would magnify any expected gains. My gut says we fill the gap, technicals say we’re close to the bottom so i am playing with those odds here
Alejandro Rodriguez's avatar
Super interesting, thanks for answering in such detail. My quick follow up would be to ask: What is your hopeful/expected upside?

If it goes your way, where do you think you would sell? How much profit are you looking to make? @sufiofwallst
Sufi's avatar
@sufiofwallstNovember 18
Author
Sure @alejandro_r - here is the possibilities of outcomes. My target is $230 ~ how quickly we get there will determine how much i net out with. Will play it by ear and see how this evolves.
Alejandro Rodriguez's avatar
Thanks @sufiofwallst, what app are you using to look at these possibilities of outcomes? I find it very enlightening. Just scanning the top left and bottom right corners of the chart show a very attractive risk-reward (depending on how you assign the probability distribution of each outcome)

Not a great move for you today, $PYPL is sitting at $200.50.

But I'm rooting for $230 for you!
Sufi's avatar
@sufiofwallstNovember 19
Author
@alejandro_r the app is called optionstrat - great tool to scenario plan option trades.

$PYPL seems to be consolidating at these levels between $200 and $212. Can never predict bottoms or tops with 100% accuracy but the technicals do seem exhausted towards the downside.

Appreciate you rooting for this to hit my target over the coming days. Stay tuned and lets all remember (as Morgan Housel wrote in the Psychology of Money) ~ volatility is a fee worth paying, not a fine worth avoiding.
Conor Mac's avatar
Love it :)
Zeeshan Mughal's avatar
Just started a new position in 12/17 $230 Calls as well. Would love to hear your thesis behind this!
Sufi's avatar
@sufiofwallstNovember 17
Author
@zeeshan best of luck to both of us Pal (😜)

$PYPL is a core holding for me and thats why i bought stocks + options ~ I plan to hold the stock for a longer term ~ option contracts are to play gap between $210 and $230.

If we look at the landscape for online peer to peer payments, paypal stands out to me out of the group given its global reach. It has products like xoom that extend its reach beyond the US ~ something that $SQ doesnt have yet.

Being the OG in this space $PYPL is intimately embedded into the facbric of the internet from day one and when they were one of the first ones to jump on to the crypto train last year, that was a strong signal that they are focused on investing in areas where the most amount of innovation is taking place in this space. In the long run I see $PYPL leaning even more into cryptos payment facilitation applications and use cases.

Think about it. You can send crypto to your friends via venmo. You can set up a merchant on venmo and accept crypto. Add cross boarder paypments to that value chain via xoom, you can pay someone anywhere in the world.

I believe blockchain and cryptography is the next big cycle after the internet and I believe $PYPL has the infrastructure and the capital to lean into the cycle in a big way.

Would love to hear your thoughts on it too
Zeeshan Mughal's avatar
That is definitely an interesting play and I agree with all of your points here! I remember when they integrated with crypto BTC was trading around $4k. I tested out their new crypto feature by buying BTC using Paypal. As always with any good trade, I wish I had bought more than I did at the time. :)

Like you said, Xoom is their unfair advantage. But I don't think many folks realize that. $SQ has Cash app to compete with Venmo but only $PYPL has access to global markets via Xoom. This will be a very interesting play when Paypal begins introducing crypto in the mix. From the outside, it may sound like traditional payment transfer will not get along well with crypto. But in this case both are in the court of Paypal - let's go!
Alejandro Rodriguez's avatar
Hasn't Paypal already created the ability to pay with crypto at checkout? I feel like I saw an announcement about that somewhere...

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