The Fed will announce their latest rate decision at 2:00pm EST today. Conventional wisdom is that we will get a pause, but then a rate hike at the next meeting.

Inflation is still hovering around 4%. That feels pretty good after where we've been, but still a long ways away from the Fed's stated goal of 2%. And the underlying numbers are showing stickiness.

There is one new piece of data for the Fed to chew on this morning, and it is quite interesting, probably supporting of a pause: the Producer Price Index, which was 0.3% in May. Prices for final demand goods were down 1.6%, that is the largest decrease since July. That number is better than expected and another sign that the red hot economy is slowing down, which is kind of the goal of these rate hikes.

Maybe a reason to pause? What is your bet?