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contrarian take
The Fed is going to raise rates, this is old news. Everyone thinks that this will shrink multiples and be bad for long duration risk assets because you are discounting by a higher rate.

But consider this:

It seems clear that the Fed will exercise caution and even at the fastest only move rates to about 2.5% a year from now. Compare this expected increase in nominal interest rates with the change in inflation. If inflation goes from the current 7.9% to 10.4% then the real change in interest rates is 0.

Aside from the Fed, most government policy is geared to err to the effect of increasing inflation over decreasing growth or increasing unemployment. It is too politically difficult today to promote policies otherwise.

If you take this all together I think there is a good chance that real rates stay around the same or even go lower from here. And this would be good for long-duration risk assets if you think that the real rates impact the multiples more than the nominal rates.


So load up on $TSLA , $GME and $BTC.X calls

Nate Pabrai's avatar
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