Many bears, particularly sellers of macro subscription services, have argued about the inverted yield curve. While the yield curve is a significant indicator that should never be ignored (with a 100% track record), these subscription sellers have neglected to mention the extent of the S&P 500's rally during an inversion. On average, the index rallies by 22%. Additionally, since 1978, the S&P 500 has even reached new all-time highs on three occasions during such inversions.

Another noteworthy aspect that seems to be overlooked is the Federal Reserve's communication regarding rate cuts in the next 20-30 months. When in history have they ever mentioned rate cuts during a hiking cycle? I couldn't find a single instance. Essentially, the Fed is further inverting the curve through their forecasts. $SPY