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Lithium: Myth or Monster?
The returns speak for themselves.
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One of the aspects I appreciate most about Commonstock is the opportunity to engage in constructive disagreement within a respectful community culture. As I gain experience as an investor, I’ve come to realize the best thing one can do is listen to opposing views. Engaging with others has reminded me to re-examine my choices, something we should all be doing consistently. Often I will either sell if I have been given seeds of doubt, or add because my conviction has grown through discussion points. Perhaps the best example in my portfolio would be lithium, and how I became known among some as Lithium Cassandra. After several tweets about my case for a lithium bull market, one of my favourite Twitter accounts, a former English major, gave me the moniker “Lithium Cassandra”. For those who don’t know, Cassandra was a Trojan priestess cursed to utter true prophecies, but never to be believed. Though several disagreed with me, all the research I had done indicated lithium had nowhere to go but up, and I still believe that’s the case.

My largest gains this year have been in the lithium space, with my favourite $PMET.CN currently up 391% in my portfolio. I am excited about the potential yet to come regarding this exciting lithium spodumene discovery in Quebec. I am also invested in $FL.V (up 98% currently), a significant spodumene resource in Ontario. With the Federal government favouring and funding mining and manufacturing in these two provinces, I expect legislation and an accelerated approval process to be key factors in the development of these assets.

In addition to Eastern Canadian spodumene, I hold $AN.V (current return 21%). Arena Minerals recently mobilized additional drill rigs on their Sal de la Puna lithium brine project in Argentina. With LAC and Ganfeng as significant shareholders (17% each), the potential of the property clearly is of interest to bigger players. I am anticipating a bidding war for Arena at some point, as happened in the case of nearby Millennial Lithium Corp. between LAC and CATL. CATL’s initial bid was worth $376.8M and LAC’s rival bid came in at $400M. In the end, LAC completed the acquisition for ~$491M in January, 2022. In addition to the Sal de la Puna property, Arena’s portfolio of projects includes additional lithium brine resources in Argentina, as well as copper and gold exposure in neighbouring Chile. With top tier management that has developed projects through to production, Eduardo Morales and Will Randall offer a lithium dream team. Morales sold Rockwood Lithium to Albemarle in 2014 for US$6.2 billion, and Randall discovered & developed the Sal de los Angeles project sold by Lithium-X for $265M in 2018. $AN.V closed at 54 cents Friday on the TSX-V, and I am hopeful the next catalyst will move the share price well beyond it’s 52wH of $0.68.

The most recent addition to my portfolio is Brunswick Exploration Inc. $BRW.V recently launched a major, long-term, grassroots lithium exploration program in Quebec and the Maritimes, staking several prospective claims throughout the well-established mining belt in the Abitibi region of Quebec. Brunswick is also starting grassroots exploration for critical metals such as copper, nickel, and tin. Tin and lithium were the best performing metals in 2021, and spot prices are not expected to decline any time soon. A large consideration in any investment I make, particularly in the high risk junior mining sector, is management’s track record. Brunswick’s CEO Robert Wares brings over 35 years of mineral exploration & development experience, and he discovered the Malartic gold mine, developed by Osisko Mining Inc into one of Canada’s largest gold producers. Wares was awarded Prospector of the Year in 2007 and named among the Northern Miner’s “Mining Men of the Year” in 2009. The company’s president is Killian Charles, previously with Integra Gold Corp, acquired by Eldorado Gold in 2017. Mr. Charles also served as VP of Corporate Development for Osisko Metals from 2017 to 2020. $BRW.V has a highly experienced team working to advance assets in Eastern Canada. One of the largest critical metal explorers in Canada, shares are tightly held and now seems like a great opportunity to buy. With continued acquisition of prospective properties and diversified metal exposure, Brunswick offers significant potential in the years ahead. Shares closed at $0.185 on the TSX-V on Friday.

It’s important I reiterate that the junior mining sector is highly volatile and involves greater risk than more established mining companies. For this reason, I monitor my holdings very closely and am prepared to sell on any changes in sentiment or anticipated drill results. In the months ahead, I will detail what strategies have served me well, and what has not. Every day is a learning experience, and I’m always grateful to those that share their knowledge with me. Your success as an investor will greatly improve when you are open to the benefits of learning from others around you. If you're new to the lithium space and have questions about terminology or the mining sector, please ask me questions in the comments! If I don't know the answer to something, I will do my best to find it.

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