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$TRUP Earnings: What I'm Looking For
$TRUP reports earnings this afternoon. I'm cautiously bullish, having first bought shares in April 2020 at $30.20/sh and having bought shares 3 more times, each at a higher per share price (most recently August 2021 at $93.18. I'm currently up ~43%. All the metrics and KPIs remain strong. However, the average pet acquisition cost (PAC) has increased dramatically.

In 2019, the lifetime value of a pet (LVP) grew 16.5% while average PAC grew 19.4%. 2020 saw LVP grow 24.9% and average PAC grew 22.5%. 2021 was 9.8% and 12.5%. The silver lining is the increased average PAC has thankfully resulted in accelerating growth in total pets enrolled (up 36.4% to 1,176,000 in 2021) and total subscription pets enrolled (up 21.9% to 704,333 in 2021). On top of that, average monthly retention continued to strengthen in 2021, up 3bps over 2020 to 98.74%. Looking back to a more "normal" (non-COVID) year, 2021 was a 16bps increase.

Here's what I'm looking for in today's earnings:

  • Solid growth in LVP, total and total subscription pets enrolled, and average monthly retention while average PAC remains reasonable.
  • >35% revenue growth over Q1'21.
  • They were barely FCF negative in 2021 while previous years were barely positive. I'm not too concerned about barely negative FCF but don't let that become a big negative.
  • Management guidance would be nice along with some updates on how the partnership with $CHWY is going.

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