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Inflation cooling-off & cooling-off - forward looking pricing, back to 2%!
M2 (money supply) growth YoY ... parabolic up, parabolic down!
If inflation is a monetary phenomenon (which is), how could inflation NOT go down from here ?
It will ... chill pill, it will happen ...
US interest rates have risen faster than any other time in recent history ... should help cool-off inflation, shouldn't it? ...
- After the latest rate hike on May 3rd, U.S. interest rates have reached levels not seen since 2007
- Rates have risen nearly 5 percentage points (p.p.) in just 14 months
And now zooming out: Visualizing 40 Years of U.S. Interest Rates & Implications for Businesses
How is US inflation via a key forward looking view?
The market is pricing expected inflation via inflation swap prices like this:
- 2.05% via the 1-year inflation swap prices
- 2.12% via the 2-year
- 2.21% via the 5-year
- 2.23% via the 10-year
Back to target: 'close to or at 2%' ;)
Thoughts?
I still think 3% is even optimistic. Shelter starting to go back up and that makes up 40% of CPI. Fed may have another hike in them which is a terrible idea. Overall I agree we are trending downward just think April will be a blip. One thing to consider is if Title 42 expiring tomorrow will have any impact on food and shelter prices.
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