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We're Buying a Really Expensive Stock This Week
I don't think there'll be much disagreement in the CommonStock community about Snowflake $SNOW being a high quality company that's offering something the business world loves. But a lot of people (rightfully so) believe it's over-valued.

Well, it was my week to pick. And I focus on anti-fragility over valuation. Here's why it landed at the top of my list.

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For those unfamiliar, Snowflake allows you to take all of the data you've collected, and turn it into actionable insights via queries and processes.

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Ever seen a dollar-based net retention that high? Us neither. This is usage-based. Think of it like going to an amusement park with carnival rides. You pay a fee to the ticket booth, and then give the tickets when you ride on the ride.

Same idea here, only you're running queries on your data instead of going on a ride. It's easy to ride a bunch of rides once you see how fun (queries = helpful) they are.

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The switching costs are somewhat self-explanatory given the DBNR. The network effect comes from industries where data sharing is important. You can sell and share your data with other companies -- so long as you're all Snowflake customers.
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Competition is definitely high. And dilution remains high even a year after the IPO. If the employees keep delivering for customers, it's worth it. But if they don't, it could become a problem. And the valuation...
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Here's where we think Snowflake is in its growth cycle
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That means P/S and maybe P/GP are the best valuation measures (though I don't personally concern myself too much with this).

As you can see, at 33X sales, it's the cheapest its ever been....and still considered CRAZY expensive.
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The company scores very high on both of our frameworks.
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But what do YOU think? Let us know in the comments below!
In five years, you'll realize
73%$SNOW was worth the valuation
26%You overpaid by a TON

69 VotesPoll ended on: 9/16/2022

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