Is TSLAQ going after Rivian as hard as they do Tesla?
Considering Rivian is valued at about 100X where Tesla was when it IPOd it just feels....wrong?
Tesla as proven itself capable of being a mass manufacturer..but why are we giving Rivian that credit already?
I think people are just psyched that there's another EV company to compete against $TSLA. I know I'll be paying close attention to see that they make or even exceed the goals that they've set for themselves. I think $AMZN & $F backing it helps as well
I love that there is competition. I am by no means a Rivian hater and think they have a super cool product.
But just seems strange to me that Tesla got so much disdain but that doesn't seem to be the case for Rivian.
I guess that's the price to pay for leading the charge.
There are a few differences, both at an industry level and company level, between tesla at its ipo and Rivian at its ipo.
(1) demand for EV vehicles is no longer a question. Dozens of countries have announced that X% of vehicles must be EV by 20XX.
(2) the price of lithium ion batteries have come down significantly. One of the reasons Elon focused on high end sports cars initially is because battery costs were so high at the time. Battery prices have come down the cost curve so much that analysts now expect price parity between the lithium ion battery in a car and ICE by 2025.
(3) Rivian isn’t just a play on the pickup truck / SUV market. It also focuses on the delivery van market. I mention this because Amazon (who is a large shareholder in Rivian) significantly derisks the company.
Now, that said, is Rivian a $100bn company today? I’m not sure, but I do think there are material differences between Rivian and Tesla at their respective IPOs
That could be a good approximation, but I prefer to use the following framework.
US Pickup Truck: 17mm vehicles sold in US per year (x) ~17% pick up truck share = ~3mm pickup trucks sold in US per year (x) 10% Rivian mkt share [assumed mkt share in 2030, #1 models garner up to 15% mkt share like F150] = 300k trucks per year (x) $70k MSRP per truck = $21bn in revenue (x) 10% EBIT margins = $2.1bn in EBIT (x) 20x TEV/EBIT multiple [slight premium to Ford & GM] = $42bn TEV in 2030.
I would do the same exercise for each region and vehicle type Rivian will be in (as well as add some revenue/earnings associated w/ potential software) to arrive at a 2030 TEV. Then, I'd discount that back to today.
I wish I can share a screenshot of my excel. Not sure how to do that.