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June 13th - Why did the market react the way it did?
Expectations changed. Now, investors believe that the Fed will hike rates by as much as 0.75% next week. The move was violent and fast due to the next FOMC meeting happening exceptionally soon.

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Predictions:
(1) Inflation will remain high until sometime around March and June 2023. Fed Funds Rate will go up gradually until then.
(2) Dollar will get very strong, forcing China to make a choice: (a) devalue its currency or (b) continue selling US treasuries. Trade balance will continue to deteriorate as imports will surge. Exporters will suffer. Companies will large amounts of international revenue will suffer.

Appendix
How are the probabilities are calculated? Read this
www.cmegroup.com
Understanding the CME Group FedWatch Tool Methodology
View the methodology behind the CME FedWatch Tool and how the probabilities of rate hikes or cuts are determined based the market pricing of Fed Fund futures.

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