Good morning contrarians! Today is all about the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, out at 0830. This number may be able to tell us whether inflation has, in fact, peaked. Economists surveyed expect the CPI to have increased by 8.1% year-over-year, which is below the 8.5% number seen last month. If you strip out food and energy, the ‘core’ CPI is expected to have increased by an even 6%, down from the 6.5% last month.

This would mean that inflation, at least by this metric, peaked last month (assuming of course the Fed’s interest-hiking campaign does its work and inflation continues to decrease from this point forward. Not sure what the usual lag is for these things, i.e. when interest rates begin to take effect on prices).

More on this, what it means, and what to look for from a market reaction, in today’s daily briefing and podcast: