Random thoughts on where we go from here...
Well... it appears people are still purchasing over-priced Airbnb's and lattes at Starbucks (ABNB expressed strong demand for travel).
Earnings have been better than I thought. Job openings are still elevated and unemployment is still low. If the market is thinking the Fed could get less aggressive here, I think if anything, this gives them the green light to keep staying hawkish.
The S&P 500 (ES) has been pretty choppy at a major support level. Feels like it is just waiting to hear from the Fed for now.
What is your take on how high the Fed can raise interest rates over the next couple of years?
Personally I find it hard to believe they could raise rates above 3%, because the federal governments debt service would become unmanageable.
3% is much, much lower than the all time high in 1981 of (a dizzying) 16%.
While it might be healthy to get interest rates up above 5%, what do you see as realistic as far as where the Fed CAN put interest rates?