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Altria's $MO Q3 numbers look pretty reasonable tbh?
People alarmed on - rev? Decline partly driven down y/y from Oct 2021 sale of Ste. Michelle.

Rev(-ET) down 2.2%
OCI up 3.4%
OI up 5.5%

This is on the back of -9% smokeable volumes (-10%, adjusted)

Smokeable
Rev(-ET) +.4%
Reported OCI up 1.4%
OCI margin up 59bps
Marlboro volumes down 8.8%.
Total share a bit weak, but strong in premium subseg.
Cigars (Black&Mild) volumes positive, though primarily driven by trade inventory movements.

Oral tobacco products look strong.
Rev(-ET) +7.7%
Reported OCI up 4.9%
on! volumes up 68% y/y
Total Q3 oral tobacco volumes positive y/y
on! category share grew 2.6pp to 4.8%.

Margin pressure on oral was completely expected. Aggressive on! promotionals will do that - though, IMO, makes complete sense to keep applying same kind of force to win share. Even with decelerating growth, has legs to grow into a meaningful contributor.

A bit surprised to see the ABI impairment charge.

Not surprised on JT JV announcement. With the severing of JUUL N-C, I think we all assumed some kind of announcement would be coming regarding refocusing on alternative RRP?

FY CapEx 175-225m. Unreal how much money this company makes with so little reinvested.

Shares out down 2.3% y/y. FY adj diluted EPS range of 4.81-4.89, 4.5-6% y/y. Hard to argue that isn't strong in wake of macro pressures on ATC habits.

Todor Kostov's avatar
@devinlasarre Thanks for sharing, Devin.
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