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Sept Idea Comp: Olaplex ($OLPX) - unique investment story and financial profile across Consumer Staples.
  • Unique brand with relatively low awareness, supported by loyal stylists and customers.
  • Growth driven by increased penetration and "premiumization" of the market. Significant whitespace to fill with adjacencies and new geographies.
  • Unique combination of robust top-line growth and solid profitability, fueled by an asset-light operating model and experienced management.
  • Attractive absolute/relative valuation.

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OLPX was founded in 2014 after two chemists discovered its patent-protected active ingredient: bis-amino. It works on a molecular level to improve hair from within by repairing disulfide bonds in hair that break when damaged. OLPX produces and retails a suite of premium hair care products, designed to promote hair health.

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Competitive Moats

Patent-Protected-Disrupting Technology__: OLPX is the only company offering a product able to repair hair at a molecule level and not simply mask hair damage. The company has a portfolio of 100+ patents. Interestingly, it includes not only hair but applications to new segments like nails and skin care.

Community__: Loyal stylist community is an underappreciated asset and contributes to the competitive moat. Shortly, OLPX created a strong community. Since the beginning, OLPX opted for a smart overlooked strategy and gathered professional stylists to create an unpaid network of advertisers, which increases awareness and credibility (stylists recommendations are leading purchasing decision factor for 61% of consumer).

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Sustainable Growth

Global hair care represented a $82bn opportunity in 2021, but OLPX operates only in a subset of the hair care market which is prestige hair care. It's a $13bn category and accounts for just 16% of the overall hair care market but expected to change with OLPX being a driving force behind the “premiumization” of the market, a phenomenon already observed within the makeup and skincare segments.

OLPX has a huge growth potential as both its penetration of specialty retailers and professional distributors and its aided awareness are low.

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It represents OLPX greatest near-term upside opportunity, especially given OLPX impressive repeat sales rate of 17%, way higher than hair care peers (4-6%).

Longer-term, the company has multiple options to support sustainable double digits growth:
  • International: entering markets where the company does not currently have a presence. OLPX mentioned that roughly half of its growth is expected to come from outside the US in the mid-long-term.
  • New products: there are still plenty of sub-segments the company does not address currently (hair color...). Another opportunity resides in adjacent products. Global skin care represents a $155bn opportunity and 82% of consumers familiar with the brand would like to see a skin care line from OLPX.

Financials

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Since the company is pretty recent and we only have 750 words, we'll focus on the outlook.

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Revenue is expected to grow at an implied c.26% CAGR by 2025. OLPX currently operates with an attractive margin structure thanks to its asset-light business model. OLPX differentiates itself with its high operating profit margin :
  • SG&A: OLPX operates an extremely lean organization of 100+ employees with no corporate headquarters i.e. c.$6mn of revenue per employee (around 6x more productive than Estee Lauder or L'Oréal). As previously mentioned, community based marketing results in a low customer acquisition cost for OLPX.
  • R&D: It offers to the company the possibility to invest (more than competitors) in R&D to stay ahead of the innovation curve.

OLPX margins rival not just those seen across Consumer Staples, but place it in S&P 500 top tier. EBITDA margin is expected to be 2.5x higher than best-in-class beauty peer, and even further above the average Consumer Staples company.

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Management and ESG Considerations

Management has strong industry experience and made smart strategic decisions, especially going from the professional (build brand credibility) to DTC (higher margins, shift to e-commerce) channel. Management created a synergistic omnichannel distribution strategy. CEO Jue Wong joined OLPX three years ago after departing Moroccanoil, a competitor offering hair/body care products. Across the broader beauty market, ESG characteristics are increasingly being factored in consumers’ purchase decisions, and ultimately becoming an important brand loyalty consideration.

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Valuation

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Given OLPX short history as a publicly traded company, it's more relevant to look at valuation on a relative basis:

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Interestingly, when we look at the relationship between future growth expectations vs. current
valuation, the data suggests that OLPX valuation is very attractive vs. Beauty peers. OLPX trades at a PE ratio lower than Estee Lauder with an expected growth significantly higher.

We have enjoyed this volatile period to initiate a position.

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