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What Moves the Stock? Opendoor
I've been watching $OPEN. It's a fascinating company, but I believe what will move Opendoor will be a little different than other stocks.

The market loves revenue growth for most companies, because extrapolating the growth out can lead to huge changes in future cashflows.

$OPEN has seen a huge revenue growth as they continue to scale their business, but the market doesn't trust that revenue growth will lead to future cash flows. Launching in new markets, etc... doesn't solve Wall Street's concerns.

I believe the biggest driver for $OPEN will be their contribution margins. $OPEN has proven that they have the ability to scale and aggressively grow revenue, but can they reliably make money? I still struggle to see the straightforward path to significantly raising contribution margins for $OPEN, but I still see indirect paths as a major possibility (aka optionality).

A secondary driver for $OPEN would be how fast they can turn their inventory. Management has discussed a 90 day turn as being possible, but current trends are nowhere close to that. Significant improvements on turning inventory would significantly reduce balance sheet concerns (leading to happy investors).

Fat Baby Funds's avatar
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