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Private debt, the loans made to businesses and households, is a better economic crisis indicator than public debt. High and rapidly growing levels of private debt weigh on aggregate demand. Interest rate rises make debt maintenance more difficult and can kick off a deleveraging when the debt burden is too big.

The countries with the highest risk of crisis are:
- **High risk:** France, Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland

Followed by:
- **Medium-high risk:** Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Thailand, United Kingdom, United States

Did not expect to see Switzerland and Sweden on the high risk category.

Joey Hirendernath

Debt cycle monitor

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