sam stribling's avatar
$115.9m follower assets
Something about Rivers in Egypt.. IDK
It’s the end of July and by my count that puts us well past the end of Q2.. I haven’t seen a GDP reading yet but if it’s negative we meet the definition of a recession. This begs the question.. is “De-Nile still just a river in Egypt?” Or are we fooling ourselves?
Are we in De-Nile about a recession?
11 VotesPoll ended on: 07/27/22
Steve Matt's avatar
Fun fact: The actual definition isn't 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. If it was, that would mean the dotcom bubble didn't cause a recession because one year, I think 2001, Q2 was positive while Q1 and Q3 were negative but it was determined we were in a recession.

Here's the actual definition from the NBER, the official arbiter of US recessions as Barron's so eloquently calls them.

"A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades."
Eric Messenger's avatar
I don’t pay much attention to macro stuff but some of the professionals I have heard said that all the indicators point to not being in a recession🤷‍♂️but like Lynch says, if economists could forecast, head all be rich. So I wonder if it’s just the market giving back the ridiculous gains post-Covid. The market was due for a massive correction. Trajectory of the S&P 500 post-Covid does not match the trajectory of the S&P 500 pre-Covid. They say stock prices follow earnings. When you have so many companies with negative earnings, whose stock prices are skyrocketing, it can’t stay aloft forever. I wasn’t around in 1999, but the explosive gains of not yet profitable growth companies in the last couple years has been bizarre. I sure as hell didn’t participate in the insanity. Just watched as everyone thought they were Midas and waited on the crash & burn, so I could get mine.
sam stribling's avatar
Thanks for the definition. I think we still meet all the requirements of a recession by that also. Real GDP has been dropping, income eroding via inflation, $WMT’s earnings warning about retail sales, etc.