It’s the end of July and by my count that puts us well past the end of Q2.. I haven’t seen a GDP reading yet but if it’s negative we meet the definition of a recession. This begs the question.. is “De-Nile still just a river in Egypt?” Or are we fooling ourselves? 



Fun fact: The actual definition isn't 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. If it was, that would mean the dotcom bubble didn't cause a recession because one year, I think 2001, Q2 was positive while Q1 and Q3 were negative but it was determined we were in a recession.

Here's the actual definition from the NBER, the official arbiter of US recessions as Barron's so eloquently calls them.

"A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades."

Steve Matt

Something about Rivers in Egypt.. IDK

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