Right now the Forward P/E of S&P500 is around 18x, and the average has been 16x in last 15 yr. But that would be the case if we consider 251 dollars for 2023 EPS (according to analyst consensus)

Now, if we take into consideration how a recession could affect S&P500 EPS, we could expect at least a 10% declining in earnings, using the median declining of last recessions. Meaning?

- In the avg 16x Forward P/E that's a S&P500 on around 3600 points (-4%)
- In the lowest 14x Forward P/E of March 2020 is 3150 points (-16%)

![](https://cdn.commonstock.com/8e1a7ff382dd161d511346faf10a8db37c74b554caf3d005e5e32a548a9d52c2-924x558.png)

To me recession is an empty word unless the consumers are actually voting with  their 💰 that they are or are not buying