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Keep Calm & Kering On - Kering Q3 Revenue Report (EPA: KER)
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Headlines

Revenue in Q3 up +23% vs Q3 2021, on a comparable basis up +14%, on a comparable basis +28% vs Q3 2019.

All regions saw growth in physical stores (+74% Western Europe, +31% Japan, +1% USA, +7% Asia-Pacific)

Asia-Pacific revenues are robust despite Chinese Covid-19 lockdowns.

Revenues increasing on a comparable basis compared to Q3 2021 for all brands:
Gucci +9% - strong in Western Europe, slower activity in USA and Asia-Pacific;
YSL +30% - strong performance across all regions;
Bottega Veneta +14% - particularly strong in Western Europe and Japan;
Other Brands +13% - strong revenue across smaller houses and categories;
Kering Eyewear & Corporate +21% - strong performance across all regions.

Final tranche of share repurchase, another 0.5% of shares are still to be bought between now and the end of the year.

Analysis

Results are broadly encouraging coming in ahead of estimates (particularly when it comes to YSL), without indications of the global economic slowdown impacting growth just yet. The exclusivity and brand loyalty of luxury goods continues to help the business perform like with other luxury brands.

One hiccup is the growth in Gucci revenues, they aren't quite so "Gucci". They are a bit behind the revenue figures of the other brands and similar brands such as at LVMH and Hermes. This is because Gucci is particularly sold in China, as opposed to the other brands, with close to 40% of Gucci revenues coming from Asia. The periodic localised Covid lockdowns have hampered growth, although things are improving. If these become a more common occurrence as we head into winter, could be an even trickier Q4.

Depending on how Xi Jinping's third term as leader goes, a more insular China and increasing tensions around Taiwan could be a significant headwind to the company as opposed to other luxury houses that are less exposed to China.

With regards to inflation pressures on costs and thus profitability, it is important to note that these luxury brand companies only report earnings for Q3 so no gauge on changes in profitability. However, it was mentioned by the Kering CFO during yesterday evening's call that up until now the company has been protected by rising costs somewhat thanks to longer-term contracts with fixed costs. Now that new contracts with suppliers are beginning to roll, they are seeing increased energy costs impacting per-unit costs. The company should be able to absorb some costs by increasing efficiency within the production process and bringing some of that more in-house. They are also not looking to raise prices for goods yet, but have not written off that suggestion for the future.

The FX situation with the stronger dollar makes goods in some parts of the world much cheaper than before, for example, US tourists in Europe will now find Kering goods much cheaper in Europe than compared to the US as compared to 6 months or so ago.

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