Digital World Acquisition ( $DWAC ) is planning to merge with Trump Media & Technology Group. While the ability of this merger to close is questionable as highlighted by great reporting by @kerrisdalecap, a scenario where the merger closes could have over 95% downside. PT: $1.88

TMTG claims it will have over $3 billion in annual revenue from its streaming service TMTG+ by 2026. However, the company will not have enough cash to fund necessary content additions to achieve scale and will be operating in a commoditized industry

The belief of having 40 million TMTG+ subscribers is a fantasy and believing they have pricing power greater than Disney+ is just as much of a folly. If operations commence they will likely be as unsuccessful as CuriosityStream ( $CURI )

Truth Social also has minimal odds of success. Its algorithm promotes harmful conspiracies such as claims the Bucha Massacre was perpetrated by Ukraine, and feeds are flooded by bots. Advertisers will not have high ROIs and risk association will prevent onboarding/create low CPMs

While the SPAC presentation projects billions in revenue, I believe the company will have revenue of less than $200 million in 2024. The high Capex nature of TMTG+ will also quickly bleed the $1 billion PIPE and force massive dilution or debt financing to avoid insolvency imo

In conclusion, I see a scenario where the DWAC/TMTG merger occurs as no different than the last time Trump was the face of the public company. In my opinion, the best-case scenario is the deal being blocked and the stock falling 75%

You can read the full report here: https://dueyourdiligence.substack.com/p/the-truth-about-truth-social?s=w