ARK last week published their open-source Zoom model on Github and accompanying blog post explaining their assumptions.

First, I love that they publish these open-source models and invite feedback. I generally find them quite insightful and, contrary to popular belief, not exceedingly fanciful.

Their Zoom model is no different. I'm a Zoom bull (at current prices of ~$100/share) and have an ultra-conservative bear case fair value estimate of $125 on the stock.

My two biggest pushbacks on their model assumptions are:

1) They assume 75% of knowledge workers will be hybrid/remote by 2026, up from 51% in 2021, a period when seemingly the vast majority of knowledge workers globally were forced into hybrid/remote work environments due to the pandemic. Since in seemingly best-case-scenario conditions for hybrid/remote work, penetration still only reached 51%, what gives them such confidence that as those conditions subside, penetration will nonetheless grow to 75%?

2) A significant portion of their base-case 2026 ARPU estimates come from Zoom IQ and future AI-enhanced products and services. I agree that Zoom IQ seems like it has the potential to be a great product, but do we have any evidence yet that it works? For example, sales teams adopting Zoom IQ reporting an increase in conversions and/or efficiency?

What other future AI-enhanced products and services do they have in mind? Simply assuming brand new products and services is too aggressive for a base-case, in my opinion.

What does everyone think about the model/model assumptions?