Better to be roughly right than precisely wrong; none better than exhibited on the history of FED inflation forecasts. I am a fan favorite of complex adaptive systems / complexity economics. This op-ed by Niall Ferguson is a great look into that mirror. Nobody Knows How Long Inflation Will Last. That’s Life. I’m instinctively a social norm’er when specifically assessing future inflation. I’m nobody’s genius despite my poorly titled Substack paid subscription newsletter (I’m sure my subscribers would agree!) But I generally rely on the a the fed weekly economic indicator.