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What I learned from AMC
Wow. The past two weeks of WSB dominating the market news with $GME, then jumping to $AMC, and now I believe $DOGE? All I can say is my 6-12 month investment in $AMC got swept up, and I had, as most would call it, paper hands. I had done my research; I knew that AMC's YoY revenue was down 90%, and it seemed like a perfect company to rebound in a post covid restricted world. Two quick lessons I got from evaluating this trade is to look at the rest of the market.

  1. Always check the short interest on any stock that I buy.
  2. Pulling out a chart to read the RSI takes 5 minutes to evaluate if a stock is overbought or sold.

Neither of these would force me to go 180 on a decision, but it is critical info before putting money in. (I should have been doing this before.)

So let's dive into my buying history with $AMC, not in shares but the percentage of total volume over the last three months
.
  • 11/27 (10%) at 4.50
  • 12/3 (6%) at 3.75
  • 12/15 (24%) at 3.23
  • 12/21 (10%) at 2.62
  • 1/05 (50%) at 2.00

1.00+ 0.262 + 0.772+ 0.225 +0.45 ~ Average cost of $2.71

The short interest/RSI would have come in handy before that first purchase or even the one on 12/15. I could have timed my entry better, but my price target was $7, so I was still expecting a near 2x return. However, I believed in the play, so as the price kept falling, I kept buying until 1/05 where I doubled my original position at $2.00. I was a believer in the strategy.

On January 21, I saw the price spike in the $3.23 range and sold 20% of my investment.

  1. This was a spur of the moment reactionary sale from the price movement. Looking back, it wasn't strategic and triggered the following events.

Then madness, with $GME still mooning and murmurs around AMC in the same channels. I got weak hands; I was nervous about a severe correction wiping out AMC. I forgot about my strategy my price target and sold in the $4.33 -$4.72 range. This should be a win because I had a ~70% return on the initial investment. Here are the reasons why it wasn't.

  1. I let the market volatility shake my conviction without rationally going through the best path forward. This had happened before when I was holding $NVAX last January.
  2. I clearly missed a momentum play that I was already positioned perfectly to ride. @gannon saw it clearly, posted here and on Twitter, but I jumped off the ship.



So what did I do for the rest of the week after getting over the FOMO. I bought into positions that I have a long price target for $FB, $SQ, $WMT, $CLOV, and $DIS. I repositioned many of my smaller investments that I don't have the same belief for growth or positions like $SPCE that I wanted to take a step back and evaluate at the current price.

Micheas's avatar
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