Wow. The past two weeks of WSB dominating the market news with
$GME, then jumping to
$AMC, and now I believe
$DOGE? All I can say is my 6-12 month investment in
$AMC got swept up, and I had, as most would call it, paper hands. I had done my research; I knew that AMC's YoY revenue was down 90%, and it seemed like a perfect company to rebound in a post covid restricted world. Two quick lessons I got from evaluating this trade is to look at the rest of the market.
- Always check the short interest on any stock that I buy.
- Pulling out a chart to read the RSI takes 5 minutes to evaluate if a stock is overbought or sold.
Neither of these would force me to go 180 on a decision, but it is critical info before putting money in. (I should have been doing this before.)
So let's dive into my buying history with
$AMC, not in shares but the percentage of total volume over the last three months
.
- 11/27 (10%) at 4.50
- 12/3 (6%) at 3.75
- 12/15 (24%) at 3.23
- 12/21 (10%) at 2.62
- 1/05 (50%) at 2.00
1.00+ 0.262 + 0.772+ 0.225 +0.45 ~ Average cost of $2.71
The short interest/RSI would have come in handy before that first purchase or even the one on 12/15. I could have timed my entry better, but my price target was $7, so I was still expecting a near 2x return. However, I believed in the play, so as the price kept falling, I kept buying until 1/05 where I doubled my original position at $2.00. I was a believer in the strategy.
On January 21, I saw the price spike in the $3.23 range and sold 20% of my investment.
- This was a spur of the moment reactionary sale from the price movement. Looking back, it wasn't strategic and triggered the following events.
Then madness, with
$GME still mooning and murmurs around AMC in the same channels. I got weak hands; I was nervous about a severe correction wiping out AMC. I forgot about my strategy my price target and sold in the $4.33 -$4.72 range. This should be a
win because I had a ~70% return on the initial investment. Here are the reasons why it wasn't.
- I let the market volatility shake my conviction without rationally going through the best path forward. This had happened before when I was holding $NVAX last January.
- I clearly missed a momentum play that I was already positioned perfectly to ride. @gannon saw it clearly, posted here and on Twitter, but I jumped off the ship.
So what did I do for the rest of the week after getting over the FOMO. I bought into positions that I have a long price target for $FB,
$SQ,
$WMT,
$CLOV, and
$DIS. I repositioned many of my smaller investments that I don't have the same belief for growth or positions like
$SPCE that I wanted to take a step back and evaluate at the current price.