Reading a book called Empty Planet which lays out a solid case around why population trends should slow sooner than anyone thinks and subsequently reverse. Writing down some of the most interesting bits as I go through it. Here's what I've got so far.

Fertility rates of various countries, keep in mind the rate needed to sustain a population is 2.1

Spain: 1.3

Brazil: 1.8

Mexico: 2.3

Malaysia: 2.1

Thailand: 1.5 (this surprised me on low side)

Niger: 7.4

Malawi: 4.9

Ghana: 4.2

Afghanistan: 5.3

Iraq: 4.6

Egypt 3.4

Israel: 2.9 (this one was surprisingly high to me)

In Brazil, there is a noticeable inverse correlation between access to television and fertility rates. Telenovelas portray having children as something you do to achieve personal fulfillment. Older generations saw having children as a duty to family, church and state. This is a big shift that is going on around the world.

The median age in Africa is only 19, compared to 35 in North America and 42 in Europe.

Baby boomers control 70% of disposable income in the US, and still have 15 Trillion to inherit.

More women over 40 give birth than women under 20.

Historically, spending more time around family led to higher birth rates as elders nagged youngsters to marry and reproduce. Due to the internet, the amount of time spent with elders is at record lows worldwide. Pressure from younger peers is often in the opposite direction.

Bangladesh and Iran have seen fertility rates drop from roughly 6 in 1980 to around 2 today - if other developing countries experienced something similar the world population could start dropping as soon as 2040.

Fertility rate of White Women in the US:

Early 1800s: 7

1850: 5.4

1900: 3.6

1940: 2.2

2020: 1.55

On a farm, a child is an investment - an extra pair of hands to milk the cow or shoulders to work the fields. In a city, a child is a liability, another mouth to feed. Social safety nets make this even truer.