I think $AMZN is a good candidate for the acceleration/deceleration trade (in addition to being a good long-term investment). In the 2nd half of 2022, sell-side consensus estimates expect Sales and EBITDA to accelerate.

During $V technology conference they stated the consumer still seems “quite healthy”. They also mentioned that e-commerce is starting to lap tougher comps. As these comps alleviate, $AMZN should see an acceleration in EBITDA.

Amazon also has been investing heavily in its business throughout the pandemic. I believe this pace of investment is unsustainable and they will be able to back off on many of their expenses.

Amazon’s management agrees with me and has started backing off on investments. As Amazon backs off, margins should expand allowing both EBITDA and FCF to accelerate.