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@paulcerro
Paul Cerro
$25.9M follower assets
PM @ Cedar Grove Capital | Multi-strategy investment fund | Thematic investing | Ex IB @MerrillLynch | Disclaimer: Not investment advice www.cedargrovecm.com
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CPG brands lose market share to private labels as consumers focus on the price tag
The trend: As more shoppers prioritize value over name recognition by choosing private label brands, national consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands are looking to boost their appeal without lowering prices.

How we got here: As production and distribution costs began rising, CPG companies adopted a number of tactics to protect their margins, opening the door for private label brands to steal market share.
  • Many passed on cost increases to the consumer by raising prices, as Coca-Cola, Kimberly-Clark, and Tyson Foods have done.
  • Brands have also reduced the frequency of promotions and the level of discounts.
  • Many CPG manufacturers have cut the number of SKUs they offer to focus on their most profitable items.

The rise of private label: High gas and food prices coupled with changing consumer perceptions of private label products enabled store-owned brands to thrive. At the same time, retailers are doubling down on private labels to increase revenues and keep shelves stocked.
  • In Q1 2022, sales of store-owned brands rose 6.5%, compared with a 5.2% increase in national brand sales, per data from IRI.
  • Nearly 80% of US adults reported either purchasing or being willing to purchase private label apparel, pantry, personal care, and other goods, per our Private Label Flash Survey conducted by Bizrate Insights in January 2022.
  • Retailers like Walmart and Target are bringing on premium designers to boost appeal for private label apparel brands.

Changing tactics: As shoppers dip into their savings to cope with higher prices, companies need to appeal to consumers in different ways.
  • “This is when CPG companies with market brands (like Tide) have to double down on their features and benefits—why are they better than the value option?” said Suzy Davidkhanian, eMarketer principal analyst at Insider Intelligence. Highlighting attributes such as efficacy and reduced environmental impact can help.
  • Davidkhanian also notes that CPG brands “should lean into the categories consumers are less likely to switch,” such as pet food or beauty products, to reduce the threat from private label brands.

Looking ahead: The Consumer Brands Association, a CPG trade group, warned in May that “price increases are now an unavoidable outcome” for the industry. As more people are forced to cut costs wherever they can, private labels’ market power will continue to grow.
  • On the other hand, name brands have an opportunity to target more affluent shoppers who haven’t yet slowed their spending—provided they don’t irritate them by resorting to shrinkflation (shrinking product sizes while maintaining or even raising prices).
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The luxury retail market shows no signs of fading
US consumers can’t get enough of luxury retail: While Walmart and Target struggle, LVMH and Burberry benefit as affluent customers ramp up their spending.

Crate and Barrel still pushing good numbers
$397.70 billion: Forecast retail sales of furniture and home furnishings in 2022. This will grow to $431.11 billion by 2025.

68%: The percentage of Crate and Barrel’s revenues from online sales, up 49% YoY.

11.9%: The increase in Crate and Barrel’s revenues in 2021. Crate and Barrel is the main driver of parent company Otto Group’s 8.6% increase in North American revenues.

86%: The percentage of global consumers who believe the metaverse will impact retail, per Wunderman Thompson. In May, Crate and Barrel named Sebastian Brauer as the company’s new senior vice president of product design, development, and metaverse.

15%: Crate and Barrel’s penetration of wedding registry listings, as of January 2022, per Baird. Amazon dominates the market, with 45% penetration, followed by Bed Bath & Beyond with 30% and Target with 26%.

Petco Vital Care Economics Fueling Growth
Petco $WOOF Vital Care was one factor in our long thesis for the company since its members have 1.5x higher traffic, 1.7x higher spend and generate 3x higher LTV

See our post on the program economics and how it drives recurring sales and retention $CHWY

cedargrovecapital.substack.com
Petco Vital Care Economics Fueling Growth
Why this service offering from Petco makes sense for any dog or cat owner

Living in my city, I see sooo many dogs, and the amount that people spend on them is quite evident. Most of them have better wardrobes than me! Haha.

I know WOOF is not apparel, but it does seem that spending on pets is a tailwind industry, generally.
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Big-box retailers and legacy department stores rethink the beauty customer experience
Big-box retailers are aggressively upgrading their beauty offerings to attract returning in-store shoppers and younger, digital-first consumers. The “shop-in-shop” partnerships that are bringing Ulta $ULTA into Target and Sephora into Kohl’s locations can also have a positive impact on ecommerce sales, as consumers may go online to replenish items they bought in-store.
  • Target’s $TGT website and app have dedicated sections for Ulta brands, as well as features like virtual makeup try-ons and live chat with beauty consultants. The partnership also comes with the promise of “double points” available through both Ulta’s Ultamate Rewards and the Target Circle loyalty program.
  • Walmart’s $WMT US partnership with UK prestige beauty retailer Space NK launched with online-only sales in March but will be followed by store collaborations in 250 US Walmart locations over the summer.

Department stores, once a principal sales channel for high-end beauty products, have had their market share eroded by new players. It’s a trend that began well before the pandemic, and it’s shifted into higher gear since.

These retailers are repositioning themselves accordingly. $KSS Kohl’s has made the most radical change by replacing store beauty departments with Sephora shop-in-shops, and it’s on track to have at least 850 in place by 2023, covering roughly three-quarters of its store count.

Others are exploring new paths for growth on the ecommerce front. In 2021, both $M Macy’s and Saks (the newly spun-off ecommerce unit of Saks Fifth Avenue) announced plans to launch online marketplaces to generate revenues while expanding the depth of their product offerings.

Retail media networks are another route for department store operators to increase revenues via beauty brands. Though this is an increasingly crowded and competitive field, department stores can boast an audience of potential customers that is more appealing to beauty brands.
  • Macy’s Media Network, launched in August 2020, is already generating more than $35 million annually with what CEO Jeff Gennette billed as “a new fashion and beauty publishing model” in a recent earnings call.
  • Nordstrom $JWN began testing retail media in 2019 with off-site campaigns for brand advertisers. After launching on-site sponsored ads in Q4 2021 and reporting $40 million in ad revenues from hundreds of brand partners that year, Nordstrom now plans to further expand its retail media network.
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Fatigue may threaten long-term growth of ecommerce subscriptions
The onset of the pandemic drove many consumers to adopt subscription ecommerce for essential items—like meal kits and pet food—as well as beauty and hobby boxes for self-care and entertainment. That dramatically propelled US subscription ecommerce sales growth in 2020 and 2021.
  • US subscription ecommerce sales will grow by 15.0% year over year (YoY) in 2022, totaling $33.48 billion.
  • Sales growth will remain steady through 2024, but subscriptions will account for just 3.2% of total retail ecommerce sales during that time.

Digital subscription buyer growth will slow to 3.3% this year, and hover around 3% through 2024.
  • This means companies building subscription models will increasingly have to draw dollars from existing subscribers. As a result, we expect that the average spending per digital subscription buyer will be higher in 2022 than at any other point during the pandemic.
  • The rising average spend per buyer will sustain sales growth in the short term, but subscription fatigue raises concerns. Consumers will eventually hit a ceiling with subscription spending, making long-term sales growth more difficult.
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Petco $WOOF beats on top and bottom line
Rev: $1.48B vs $1.45B
EPS: $0.17 vs. $0.15

Maintains FY guidance
14th consecutive quarter of +SSS
24.4M Net new Customers (+400k)
4% rev growth translated into 5% adj. EBITDA Growth
Services grew at 18%

To see why we are bullish on the Pet industry and on Petco specifically, take look at our in-depth research below (audio version included).

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cedargrovecapital.substack.com
WOOF: Banking on the Pet Industry
Why we believe Petco has all the makings of delivering outsized shareholder returns

The Real Reason The Stock Market Is Down
  • On average over the past century, according to an analysis conducted by Ned Davis Research, the S&P 500 has performed better when its EPS was lower than a year previously — not higher.

  • Over the past year, the U.S. stock market’s P/E multiple (based on trailing 12 months’ GAAP EPS) has fallen to below 20 from more than 30. Had the multiple remained constant, the S&P 500 today would be 28% higher than a year ago. In fact, it is 6% lower.

  • So if earnings aren’t going down, then the P/E multiple is to blame which means there are some companies out there with strong earnings that you could pick up at a real bargain in this environment.

To read more on this, click through the link below and make sure to play the audio. This week isn't ma read aloud but provides more context and data in the episode.

If you like what you read/hear, be sure to like and subscribe to never miss out on a post!

cedargrovecapital.substack.com
The Real Reason The Stock Market Is Down
P/E multiple contraction is the main driver of falling share prices.

$WOOF: Banking on the Pet Industry
TL;DR
  • Petco’s omnichannel push will help it solidify itself as top pet health and wellness company with a strong defensible moat and loyal customer base

  • Continued push into value-added services creates a closed-ended one-stop-shop ecosystem for all pet owners

  • Its strategic initiatives will drive top-line growth and significantly improve the company’s profitability and cash flow

  • Given the company’s strategic growth initiatives, the market is mispricing the potential for Petco to deliver outsized returns over the next few years

Take a look at the rest of our thoughts below and be sure to like and subscribe to continue getting more research on the consumer space.

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cedargrovecapital.substack.com
WOOF: Banking on the Pet Industry
Why we believe Petco has all the makings of delivering outsized shareholder returns

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