Nap Time
Markets are humbling.
Upstart's bridge funding issue struck panic among investors... & rightfully so. I'm discouraged. I'm annoyed. I'm displeased. I'm not ready to sell. If bridge funding is a one-off event, there's a ton to like here at sub 20X earnings and 47% growth into the teeth of tightening. If bridge funding turns into a theme, there's not much to like here. Macro could not get much worse for them & their overly optimistic guide last Q compounded the issue. Down but not out. We shall see.
I thought Duolingo and Lemonade would report clunkers for quarters. They both posted across-the-board beat & raises with no alarming issues to note. Duolingo rocked. Elite.
The Trade Desk posted its gazillionth great Q in a row. Inflation, war & supply chains weighing on ad budgets? I guess this company didn't get the memo. Now sporting a sub 40X earnings multiple vs. 40X+ sales early last year. Growth continues to accelerate. 👀
SoFi was excellent but fintech is a bad word so nobody cares... but they will care eventually. For now I continue to slowly add.
GoodRx stunk. I thought last Q was kitchen sink... not so fast. Kroger really threw a wrench in the report, but at 16X earnings with 18% growth serving as a trough in 2022... I still like the stock. Its market share, consumer savings rate and take rate leads all continue to grow. The moat is building.
This was quite the emotionally draining week but it equipped me with invaluable data points hinting at which companies will deserve my time & Capital through macro cycles. Happy weekend!
Conor's avatar
I loved your analysis with Brian Feroldi on $UPST. I’ve bought and sold $UPST twice. I was tempted to buy them a third time after seeing their price dip to almost below their IPO price, however, it seems more risky now than ever

I hope you have a great weekend!
Bradley Freeman's avatar
@conorvalue thanks for listening in! 🙂
Ryan Mahony's avatar
Great notes, also long $TTD, what an amazing business. $UPST ‘s business model is also very tied to the economic cycle. This is the part of the cycle where rates moving up, consumers are a bit tight due to inflation, and default risk is way up.
ParrotStock's avatar
Can you buy 1 share of all my stocks? I need your summaries for all my positions! 😊 😇
Bradley Freeman's avatar
@parrot 😂😂 I'm on it
Cole's avatar
$DUOL and $LMND are my favorite stocks to follow!
Bradley Freeman's avatar
@laststock high risk high reward!