You need a straight line up for TQQQ...I would say the next year will NOT be a straight line up
@avid6ix the ETF resets every day so if the market went up 3% then down 4% then up 2% then down 3% and so on and so on you wouldn't actually get triple the returns even it were up for the year. I do agree with you on looking at the 5 year return and even YTD for the SQQQ (short verison) has crushed QQQ in terms of return.
@avid6ix Those returns are correct if you bought at $8.21 a share and
held your shares even after the price went from $28.64 to $8.88 in March of
2020 then continued to hold to the peak.
You would have been
better off just buying at the end of March of 2020 but that's impossible to
time out. Honestly, people just got really lucky. March 2020 to November 19,
2021 it went straight up. I wouldn't think this market will behave remotely
close to that period of time.
I wouldn't play either of them right now unless your holding period is very short.
I'd prefer to do leverage my own way, with options or just margin - these levered products don't track well at all over time, only if the march up is a straight line
These products are designed to track over a single day, not over time. If you start with $100, note how the daily performance on the right is twice daily performance on the left, but after 6 moves you have $60 instead of $88 - this is a highly exaggerated version of what happens to these products in choppy/bear markets.