Wild Week of Earnings
Around one-third of my companies report this week. I wanted to provide some VERY rough expectations on a few of them mainly to hold myself accountable if companies miss those expectations by a wide enough margin:
- Upstart Holdings -- Expectations are lofty and macro is worsening. This quarter and guide will work wonders in eroding fears over its ability to succeed throughout any macro environment or it will amplify those fears. I want to see more partner bank retention, more partner FICO minimum eliminations and more auto color.
- SoFi Technologies -- Its student loan business will remain severely challenged, but its guidance contemplates this. Analysts are still looking for 40%+ growth and rapid margin expansion and that's also what I expect. I'd also love to hear more about this new Galileo/Mastercard relationship.
- Lemonade -- I'm much closer to exiting this position than any other in my portfolio. Customer additions need to quickly re-accelerate, growth needs to be upbeat and peak loss commentary needs to be re-affirmed. It doesn't matter if it's trading at cash value if all of that cash will be burned. Any more hiccups this quarter and I am out. A strong quarter -- conversely -- would lengthen my rope.
- The Trade Desk -- Jeff Green always delivers. I worry about this one less than any other position. Results should be good, but the stock still sports a 45X+ forward earnings multiple so the bar continues to be set high.
- Olo -- We are just a few quarters away from it lapping pandemic comps that greatly propped up its growth. I continue to accumulate shares and continue to think its philosophy of spending all gross profit dollars on growth is both the right long term mindset and something that markets will continue to hate. I'll keep SLOWLY accumulating as long as results remain as strong as they've been.
- GoodRx -- Last quarter was a disaster... but part of the reason was due to shifting overly optimistic guidance to what I perceive to be very pessimistic. That leaves upside risk rather than downside risk to the guidance that we've had since the IPO. This is a 25% compounder with 30%+ margins and sports an earnings multiple of roughly 25X. If its savings rate leads and marketshare continue to grow, it will be in prime position to re-accelerate when its market improves.
Let's do this!
We are unfortunately at a point where not even actual earnings and FCF matter, fun times.
Tough times take care, love your $PGNY pick, might get in.