Sad But True
Knowing what’s going on from a macro perspective allows one to take advantage of others’ fears; but I’d never let it scare me out of the market or into all cash. Howard Marks & Warren Buffet been doing this for decades and are clear about the repeating pattern of all this macro noise. Wars, interest rate volatility, housing & commodity bubbles, inflation, etc., all been around in the past, currently in the present, and will be around in the future. I’ll stick to buying wonderful companies at fair prices. It is what makes this relatively easy; knowing what information matters to long term success.
Marks’ recent memo podcast was about this and how few people invest profitably based on macro strategies.
Devil’s advocate here but could argue this is the exact time that matters in name picking. When everything seemingly moving because macro is front-burner, is when you can snag good deals and catch names that are irrationally offsides.