Economic Update
Stocks are starting a little lower today after ending positive for the week last Friday.

The week ahead is busy for us with the Fed rate hike decision on Wednesday, the first release of second quarter GDP on Thursday which will be a formal indication of whether we are in a recession or not, and various significant corporate earnings releases.

In economic news this morning, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index was unchanged in June at -0.19, indicating steady economic growth. The 3-month average, which smooths out monthly volatility, declined to -0.04 in July from 0.09 in May. The Chicago Fed noted that economic expansion has historically been associated with values above -0.70.

Treasury yields are higher this morning, with the 2-year T yield up 11.1 basis points to 3.02%, the 5-year T yield up 8.6 basis points to 2.90% and the 10-year T yield up 9.1 basis points to 2.82%. Advance rates are lower on terms less than one year and higher on terms one year and greater.image
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