If today's chart(s) seem to be a bit all over the place, it maybe because I am in the process of moving my son out of the house & to another state. To say the house is in a state of flux is an understatement
Anyone who has moved knows the scene, boxes everywhere & no one quite sure exactly where something is. It's quite the mixed bag of sentiment and stuff, for lack of a better word
I felt the same way when going through my email to see if anything really stood out to write about. I thought about taking a look at oil today on the back of Biden saying they will re-fill some of the SPR. However, the price action there suggests a bit of a non-event
There was more negative news on Chinese economic growth over night too, but I have written about that. There are more debt ceiling headlines but I have covered that a couple times & expect to even more
So I thought I would give you a collection of charts I found in my 'Other' folder on Outlook. I always get to these but they are a lower priority. However, while not on the same exact subject, I think they tell a bit of a story
Upper left is US consumer credit card loans. You can see that these are at an all-time high & rising. I know we all use our credit card for the miles & perks, however, in the data we also see delinquencies moving higher, share of accounts making the minimum payment going higher & charge-off rates going higher. This is no beuno
In the upper right is a look at US companies. Bankruptcy filings have been historically low courtesy of govt cash. However, these are starting to move higher & are averaging more like 2020 numbers now. Again, not a panic, but not a good trend
The bottom left shows the value of private equity & venture capital deals worldwide. I have spoken about the flow of credit to small biz but this is another avenue of credit. March wasn't bad but April fell off a cliff.
Finally in the lower left we see the number & size of funding round sin PE/VC. I have had quite a few calls with founders of late. I know the mkt for raising capital is getting tougher. It hasn't dried up completely but it is a buyers mkt right now, a far cry from before the FOMC started hiking
If I add into this the broken M&A deals with Activision, First Horizon & Horizon Therapuetics & the deal calendar is not looking too good. What does this mean for our friends in NYC & SF where layoffs are already happening?
So, a bit all over the place today. Things are scattered. Not exactly sure which box to dig into to find exactly what I am looking for. However, stepping back, & trying to see if the trend is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction, I struggle to be upbeat
I hope the move this week goes a little better than this data has gone. Change can be a very good thing if it is handled well. If problems are not anticipated, it can get pretty frustrating, pretty quickly
#markets #investing #economy #stayvigilant