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Tried to do a deeper dive but have been kicked twice after half hour write ups. So here’s a short version. I usually like a longer term track record of success. But being as intimately involved with crypto as I am, I feel it’s my circle of competence now more than any other. I have never seen this level of growth, and improvement in profit margins, cash, or any other metric one wants to observe, with such insanely low valuations. Growth investors pay for growth when companies aren’t even profitable. Can any growth investors (not my circle of competence) tell me why $COIN growth (plus the benefit of already achieving profitability) isn’t looked at the same? Is it just a fear of crypto? Cause my Visa/Coinbase card is in the mail. If Visa (and MasterCard, and PayPal, and…..) is working with crypto, I feel comfortable with my thesis. Especially seeing the astronomical trends of growth & profitability.
Steve Matt's avatar
I think it’s guidance. I have COIN on my watchlist and I track their financials and KPIs quarterly. Management is guiding for 5 to 15 million average annual retail monthly transacting users. 2021 was 11.4 million. So they think MTUs could possibly decelerate by 56%. Average transaction revenue per user is guided for pre-2021 levels. 2021 was $64 per user while 2020 was $45. And they don’t even say if they think 2020 level. Maybe they think it could fall to 2019 level of $34 per user.
If management can’t accurately anticipate how their industry will be this year and they think a considerable slowdown is possible (and based on current crypto enthusiasm, I think it’s a near-given), that’s why I can’t pull the trigger yet and buy. I prefer to pay for future growth, not past growth. That’s my thesis for why I can’t buy yet.

Write this on mobile so apologies if it’s rambling lol
Eric Messenger's avatar
@interrobangbros nope, perfect. Makes sense.
Eric Messenger's avatar
I was thinking I should probably use my laptop if I’m gonna babble
Luka 🦉's avatar
@wall_street_deebo yeah the app is too buggy to write a big post
Stanley's avatar
I'm not what you would call a "growth investor" nor by any means a crypto expert; however, I will put my 2c in - because well, it's the Internet, and that's what we do LOL.

First, I do think there is a future for crypto ...but not in it's existing form, or the way that many crypto enthusiasts would prefer.

The problem is fiat currency and various governments addiction to currency manipulation (come on, they all do it). Ultimately, almost no government is going to embrace any technology that threatens their control over the money supply. For now, and most likely the foreseeable future, crypto is just an oddity - as soon as it becomes a real threat to any government's control over the money supply, they will enact legislation to stop it - they absolutely must.

The future of crypto, as a form of payment anyways, is as government controlled crypto currency - digital fiat. Other crypto currencies will likely survive as crypto ledgers along with dozens or hundreds of other uses and some of those coins may hold value and be traded just as crypto is today.

But the true "holy grail" of a public crypto as a payment system, the one thing that would make it the most valuable, not likely IMHO.

And that realization, whether conscious or unconscious, could be putting downward pressure on $COIN - widespread adoption of a public crypto as currency hasn't happened, nor likely will happen, for the one thing it needs to be truly successful - as national currencies.

These thoughts are my own but a quick Google search found me the following which you might find interesting.

Eric Messenger's avatar
@fatcatinvesting just don’t forget I’m not about the crypto “currency”. I’m about the crypto everything BUT currency. I hate Bitcoin and only started grudgingly adding it a few weeks back. I’m investing in blockchain and everything else crypto more so than the currency and transactions part. I’ll check this out on break though, think Bitcoin is like a Tulip bulb personally.
Stanley's avatar
I’ve found it helpful for longer posts to use desktop and create a draft as a text file.
Luka 🦉's avatar
Crypto Debit cards are simply USD debit cards. The fact that are connected to Coinbase instead of your bank is just a technicality, cause everything you do is convert your crypto into USD and pay the merchant. For Visa/Mastercard it's business, more commission (in USD) to them, that's it.

I believe that the low valuation of $COIN is connected with the simple fact that we are still trying to understand if all crypto is simply a Ponzi scheme or not; that's pretty much a big risk for a company having their only line of business being possibly worthless.
Eric Messenger's avatar
@stock.owl yes sir, I just like the cash back in crypto and having so much of my financial action being linked now with Visa linked into my crypto. Makes life much easier.

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