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Stock Fanboys πŸ”₯
Ever noticed the phenomenon of certain stocks being surrounded by fervent investor fanboys?

These enthusiasts can be found passionately defending or engaging in heated arguments about their favorite companies. What do you think drives this behavior? Is it the charismatic leadership, the potential for high returns, or perhaps the emotional attachment investors develop?

From my side, there is no stock in my portfolio for which I feel the need to argue on the internet about my bullish theory...

Do you think $GIS is a dead company? Ok, have a nice day, Sir. 🎩

A few names come into my mind: $TSLA $PLTR $AAPL $META.

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Beaver Capital's avatar
Beaver Capital
@beaver_capMay 16
It’s rather funny to watch cause people get so emotional. People hate being wrong and want to be better than everyone else.

When will they figure out we’re all on the same team and should be rooting together in this journey?
Luka πŸ¦‰'s avatar
Luka πŸ¦‰
@stock.owlMay 16Author
@beaver_cap, why do you think this happens, especially on some stocks? Why do some companies polarize the discussion so much? It's like iPhone vs. Android story...
Beaver Capital's avatar
Beaver Capital
@beaver_capMay 16
@stock.owl I think because people hate losing money more than they like gains. Most of those stocks are where people have unrealized losses and looking to shift blame would be my guess
Luka πŸ¦‰'s avatar
Luka πŸ¦‰
@stock.owlMay 16Author
@beaver_cap that’s true also. I agree with this explanation
Jazzi Young's avatar
Jazzi Young
@jazziyoungMay 16
We try to spend as little time on public social media as possible. There's value to be extracted no doubt, but it quickly becomes a net negative the longer you spend in it.
Our hypothesis for a lot of what you see is down to ego and projection.
A lot of arguments about stocks are pointless because people are talking cross purposes. They'll have different timeframes, investment styles and risk tolerance. The arguments become unpleasant because a lot of people haven't learnt to stay focused and debate civilly, so it just descends into ad hominem.
The "mercurial business leader" phenomenon you see is most likely projection. The successful leader that encompasses the same opinions and world view as yourself makes you not only financially invested, you're personally invested. Your ego is now tied to the continued success of that leader. If you've already made a lot of money in the stock, you're also subject to the endowment effect.
The endowment effect (which is really ego when you strip away the behavioural finance wrapping) is usually the cause of why people defend their stock to the bitter end, despite evidence to the contrary. That stock has been very kind to you in the past, but that all counts for nought if it faces a grim feature. It's always worth looking to see if someone is presenting a reasonable argument why your stock is now facing secular decline. Add it to your deliberations if it's reasonable. Even thank the other person for making you aware of it. If you think there's no merit to their argument, just move on. Your job is not to turn them into a believer. Your job is to be profitable.
We believe the vigorous "defend my stock to the bitter end" is just the ego talking. Ego is probably also responsible for the "your stock sucks" assertion. You're so tied to your beliefs and predictions that you can't imagine an alternative outcome. It's all pointless because the future is unknowable and randomness lurks. You can invest on the evidence-based data and trend, but nothing is ever guaranteed. If people held themselves to account for their assertions with more diligence and rigour (use journalling people!), there'll likely debate with more humility. In the world of investing, even the best process comes up with a lot of stinkers. Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Terry Smith, Seth Klarman ... they've all bought their fair share of stinkers. They're skilled to quickly back out of their stinkers without regret when they realise they're wrong. We win because of the few big winners in our portfolio that we get right.
We don't like to say it's inexperience in the market that causes people to rigidly hold their opinions to the point of obsession. It's more about not experiencing enough variety of market conditions. You can spend 10 years in the market and really only have 1 year of experience repeated 10 times if the market has behaved the same over those 10 years (like during a long secular bull market). Likewise you can spend 5 years in the market and gain 10 years of experience if you go through a couple of bull and bear markets during that time. Those who entered the market just before the pandemic bear market are actually fortunate to have already experienced a couple of market cycles in quick succession. Tenure across market cycles usually brings humility. The more market cycles you live through, the more smackdowns you'll experience, the more humble you become.
Luka πŸ¦‰'s avatar
Luka πŸ¦‰
@stock.owlMay 16Author
@jazziyoung Wow, thanks for your opinion :)
I believe such behavior was boosted by many young investors buying stocks in the last three years. I don't want to look like a boomer here (maybe I am cause I am 38), but around like 8 years ago, I didn't see such fights online. When I started to invest 20 years ago, there was also no "online" πŸ˜‚

Maybe it is also true that social media exploded recently; Twitter, CS, FB, or whatever are become a place to talk about stocks and investments, while a few years ago, you can find it only in some forums. Now investing is everywhere.

Anyway, I try to avoid such discussions cause they are useless to my portfolio return, and they just waste my time.
Jazzi Young's avatar
Jazzi Young
@jazziyoungMay 16
@stock.owl The prevalence of algorithmic social media where posts generating the most engagement get promoted to the top of the pile seems to have definitely magnified things. We're now in the age of "angertainment".
We definitely saw partisanship and heated discussions on the boards of the Motley Fool back in the early 2000s. But it wasn't so bad because there was still this underlying community trying to overcome the information edge that the institutions and high-fee fund managers were protecting. Nowadays, that information edge has narrowed substantially.
We have a couple of books still sitting on our "to read" list that we thought might help us make sense of what's been going on. Kelly Weill's Off the Edge and Johann Hari's Stolen Focus could help us understand human behaviour more. There are other specific books about the effects of social media but we're not ready to go down that rabbit hole.
Luka πŸ¦‰'s avatar
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