Nick's avatar
$93.4m follower assets
Sold 23% of CELH
155.27% GAIN
Celsius at $107.00
1 Comment
1 Upvote
Learning from my mistakes
I wrote a pretty long post not too long ago about all the rookie mistakes I've made in my journey. I've been trying to learn from those and not repeat them. As part of my #neversell, I rode $PENN from 22 to 140 back to the mid 30s. My thesis never changed, but the market did, and it got way overheated and I didn't sell. I think we'll get back there someday, but I had a 7x in under a year and didn't even consider taking capital off the table.

Insert yesterday's decision to trim $CELH. I'm an avid user of the product, I love the stock, but it ran from 28 when I started buying to 112 and once again, I just watched and held. After some trips to the 40s and 50s, they finally announced a distribution agreement with Pepsi! Amazing news!! Distribution is the name of the game, and they now have a giant behind them. It skyrocketed the stock back over 100, and I decided to take a little more than half of my capital off the table. Still believe in the story long term, still believe that they can be a great long term holding, but in my opinion, their biggest catalyst just hit, Pepsi has the right to buy at 75, a pretty large discount from today's price, and by every fundamental metric they are extremely overvalued right now (seriously, their p/e is in the hundreds lol and p/s in high double digits in THIS economy).

They're growing like crazy, and just added a fire hose to their distribution capabilities, but I think they need a little time to grow into the valuation. Just because they have distribution doesn't mean they can fulfill a sudden increase in capacity, and at this lofty of a valuation, the first slight of weakness/miss in a quarterly is going to send the stock flying down. Maybe I miss some upside, but at the end of the day, I'm playing with mostly house money because I drew down my initial investment. Time will tell if this was a good sell or not, but I just can't see what news could continue to push them higher, and I see plenty of ways they can come back to earth valuation wise (and I'll be ready to buy back for the next run!)

Glad I took a few minutes to journal this one for myself, because it feels like a solid step in my growth as an investor, and also because I've missed this community haha life has been extremely hectic, and I'm dealing with some real estate nightmares (note to self: just buy a reit next time), but I'm going to do my best to get more active in here, and hopefully work on more concise writing lol.
Conor Mac's avatar
Can never feel too down about making such a great return in a short space of time. Taking profits might not be sexy, but is cements $ in the bank.

Think of this way, imagine you had held the stock for 5 years, and it generated a 20% CAGR over that time period. That's a fantastic return, and you just generated a superior CAGR in one fifth the amount of time. Opportunity cost.

Nick's avatar
@investmenttalk you make me want to sell the rest of my position when you put it like that! Even just trimming was a step in the right direction 😁