According to data released by the U.S. Labor Department July 13th, inflation is at a four decade high:
Fuels, fertilizers, foods, and industrial inputs are all much higher.
- Increase in money supply
- China's Zero Covid lockdowns
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Mass baby boomer retirement
I've been far too slow to adjust, and locking in some heavy losses doesn't feel great.
But my portfolio needs to acknowledge that the traditional tools at central banks' disposal to tackle inflation are unlikely to have the same impact that they might once have had
Inflation is anything but transitory.
I'm needing to factor in the possibility that relief is not going to come in weeks or months, but years.
I'm still saying mostly long— thankfully the fundamentals of the American economic system remain sound. Demand remains strong, even for non-essentials like flights, restaurants, and movies.
But it was time to have more cash on hand.