Self-licking ice cream cone
As hard as it is to believe, the signs are pointing towards the soft-landing . . . but the new normal might be kind of disappointing. Also, methinks VC has a big and unaccounted for correlated risk https://system2randomwalk.substack.com/p/a-self-licking-ice-cream-cone
Nathan Worden's avatar
Holy Moses that's a good title 🍦 👅
Nathan Worden's avatar
Regarding the "fine line" that we need to keep walking in order to get a 'soft landing' — wouldn't poor earnings come in first before employment metrics get worse?
Moses Sternstein's avatar
@nathanworden you mean that if performance continues to deteriorate, more people will get fired? yes, absolutely, but as long as people stay hired, performance shouldn't deteriorate too much. labor markets are contracting, off a ridiculously pro-worker base...we've got more room to fall. Now, is it possible that the slowdown negative feedback loop just keeps spiralling? Absolutely. Also, housing, cars, etc. are big parts of the economy, but that's just what consumers finance...enterprise finances a whole lot of other things and maybe we haven't seen the long tail yet. But as of now, the data shows we might just pull it off.
Nathan Worden's avatar
@holymoses Thanks for the clarification— the data seems surprisingly hopeful. ~6 months ago it felt like there was no way a soft landing could happen.

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