It was August 2018. The markets are on their way to nearing their all-time highs after enduring a chaotic February with higher-than-expected inflation data and a new trade war with China and Europe that rattled the markets.
During that time, $AAPL
broke the $1 trillion mark. This is despite the trade wars acting as a major bear case for Apple as Apple relied on China for manufacturing and sales growth. When looking at the technical charts, the "trillion dollar moment" showed that Apple's stock price broke past its long-term resistance line, and with breakouts like that, higher momentum is expected.
I decided to buy a share of Apple in October 2018 as I saw the stock price land on a new level of support. But then, more negative news kept coming:
- India, a major growth market, is bringing doubt to investors as Indian consumers struggle to afford newer iPhones
- Tariffs will make the price of iPhones and other Apple gadgets more expensive, causing a further deceleration in sales
- People aren't replacing their iPhones as frequently as they use to
- Apple customers are furious when the newer iPhones no longer have a headphone jack
- enthusiasm for the iPhone 10 is lower than expected, even as the phone looked significantly different from the other iPhones and had $OLED technology
- The lack of innovation at Apple is concerning
- The new Airpods will struggle to boost the decline of Apple's product revenues because demand is uncertain and many might not buy them due to the fact that people can easily lose them
- Recession fears due to trade wars
All of these issues, along with a continually declining stock price, tested my patience. During the week before Christmas, I sold my Apple shares at a loss.
I should've had more faith in the recurring revenue potential for Apple. I should've been more open minded to the fact that Apple diversifies the number of firms it does business with for nearly every little component in their products.
Importantly, I learned that I wasn't ready to be a growth investor. I learned that I preferred to have guaranteed returns like dividends than gamble on the possibility of the stock price continuing to grow. The stock market doesn't reflect the true value of a business in most cases. It's mainly emotion based. Dividends aren't emotion based. Capital gains can be fueled by emotions of other investors.
The Apple investment/trade has been the worst thing I've done in my brokerage account. And without it, I wouldn't have changed my mindset and become a dividend investor in the first place.