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$SWAV $PUBM $UPST Earnings: What I'm Looking For
ShockWave Medical, Inc. ($SWAV) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/9)
ShockWave has increased revenue by 13,696% from 2017 to 2021. And if you think it's cheating since revenue in 2017 was just $1.7MM, fine. They did, however, increase revenue from 2020 to 2021 by 250% up to $237.1MM. Their IVL treatment has taken off.

Look at what they've done so far. Those margins movements are making me swoon.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • 250% revenue growth can't be expected for FY 2022 but Q1'21 was just $31.9MM. If management is going to hit their $415MM guidance for the year, Q1'22 should be revenue growth of at least 200% ($95.7MM).
  • GPM >80%. Keep that margin trending upward.
  • Free cash flow positive.
  • Just curious to see how the revenue by geography breaks down, Europe in particular, who accounted for just 16.3% of 2021 revenue.


Current position:
Total cost basis: 30th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.70 years
Number of purchases since: 2
Annualized return: (40.8%)
Annualized $SPY return: (14.4%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (27.5%)


PubMatic, Inc. ($PUBM) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/9)

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Looking for a beat on revenue guidance ($54MM at the midpoint).
  • NRR needs to remain strong. 140% would be a slowdown but still a really good number.
  • Ad impressions >32.4T
  • CTV/OTT publisher count >195

Current position:
Total cost basis: 51st highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.27 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (16.2%)
Annualized $SPY return: (16.9%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (31.7%)


Upstart Holdings, Inc. ($UPST) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/9)
Their growth was outrageous in 2021. Can it sustain? Is 3.72 forward sales cheap or expensive? I'd argue cheap. I hope I'm right.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Management seems to sandbag guidance every quarter. They've beaten their own midpoint guidance by nearly 15% on average the past 4 Qs. They're guiding for $300MM at the midpoint in Q1, which is $4MM below where Q4. I'm looking for at least $340MM.
  • I'm not concerned with Upstart becoming profitable yet. I'd rather they work on gaining market share. However, 2021 was a big drop in net income. Their balance sheet is good but not great. Keep increasing FCF or scale back net losses.
  • Conversion rate and contribution margins will be key. Also, some internet sleuths noticed they updated their About page to say 74% of loans have been fully automated through 12/31/21. However, their recent 10-K had that number at 69% for 2021. Very curious to see what their Q1 % is.
  • Concentration risk needs to keep decreasing. This one is important. Cross River Bank was a record low 55% of all loans originated (previously 67% in 2020 and 89% in 2019) and 56% of revenue (63% and 80%, respectively). However, 55%/56% is still quite high. A second bank has actually increased as CRB decreased. Bank Unknown went from 24% of loans in 2020 to 36% in 2021 and 18% of revenue to 27%. I really want to see CRB decrease without any/a substantial increase to this other bank.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 12th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.73 years
Number of purchases since: 3
Annualized return: (63.3%)
Annualized $SPY return: (14.7%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (28.8%)
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